For everybody to get on board here. But bottom line is that we’ve got a serious weather event that’s going to strike southeast texas and it looks like it’s going to be a crippling ice storm still early to tell whether or not it’s going to be as bad as 1997. If you remember that and we’re here in southeast texas at time, but the deal is, is that this is not going to be as long lived it’s not going to be two or three days of icing. In other words, i think it’s going to be about 15 to 18 hours of icing, and then this is going to move off. But so we won’t have any additional ice falling after about, say three four o’clock in the afternoon and um, then it’s just cold temperatures, tuesday now there’s some areas by next wednesday and thursday. That may have to deal with some freezing rain, sleet and snow next week. I don’t think it’s going to happen here in the triangle, but could change okay and the other issue is the cold. This is going to be the coldest in almost 40 years. I was what uh let’s see in 83. I was 86, i was 18., so i was what 80. I was 13 years old when this hit back in 1983, where we got down to 15 degrees that’s. What we’re forecasting for beaumont at this time could be 9, 10, 11 up in the lakes area, so that’s a pretty serious, uh cold air blast for southeast texas.
So i think we’re got everybody online and uh we’re gon na go ahead and start this, but uh glad you’re with us this evening on this very special facebook live which we didn’t have to do this, but we want to get everybody on board and get you Updated as far as what we’re expecting so through the weekend, we’re expecting temperatures just to get gradually colder. Now there could be some light freezing rain tomorrow night up in the lakes area, we’re talking, tyler, jasper, newton counties, i don’t think it’s going to be significant, though then presidents, day monday. This is what we, unless something radically changes from the model data that i have you’ve been watching over the last several days. It shows a crippling ice storm over southeast texas. This means icy roads, you’re not going to be able to travel. It is going to be dangerous to travel, and this also means the potential for power outages then, tuesday morning, the coldest weather in almost 40 years. Technically, that would be what 38 years, okay and uh we’re talking temperatures 10 up in the lakes, maybe 15 in beaumont and that’s, going to keep the roads icy until we get above freezing. Hopefully we get above freezing tuesday, so you’re, probably not going to be driving around safely on president’s day that night and tuesday morning. So there may be a couple days where you may not be able to get to anywhere. You need to go otherwise it’s all about the four ps you’ve got tonight tomorrow and sunday to get ready for this.
That means pipes are a priority in addition to people and pets, usually once you start getting down into the middle 20s that’s when we start having problems with houses with even on slabs, because you’ve got pipes that go up into your attic, those freeze, okay, this is Going to be well below that so also we’re, not just talking about the plants that you take in and off your uh off your patio. These are bushes that are gon na, are gon na die if you don’t protect them. If there’s a, i don’t, know some ornamental bush that you have in your front yard, and you want to save it, you better, you better at least wrap it and make sure it’s ready to go otherwise it’s pipes. This is going to be a pipe busting scenario. So we’ve updated a few things crippling ice storm is what we’re calling this. Why? Because, once you start getting a third to a half, an inch of ice accumulation, that brings down branches which fall on power lines, and you know what that means. So i expect many people to be out of power. Unfortunately, and this will last from the wee hours, maybe well let’s, just go with sunday late sunday night through midday mid afternoon, say monday, so it may be pretty close to what we saw in 97. Maybe not the top end, because it’s not going to last as long but here’s the latest high resolution modeling and again this only came into use today because it only goes out several hours.
These are not global models. This is high resolution modeling. So you can see you can start picking out individual areas. It looks like unless something changes. Northern sections of newton county are going to see quite a significant icing versus maybe over towards uh bridge city, lesser and down towards sabine pass even less. This is what is different from the global models. The global models have a higher or a lower resolution. They are not as fine tuner as you can. You can’t see as find individual signatures, like wow that’s, some pretty impressive icing in southern sections of newton county. You can’t do that with a global model, so they’re, not as they can’t pick out those kind of fine details, but all of them are showing icing. Okay. So once you get out of the blue, that line of blue and uh purple or magenta is a half an inch so close to a half an inch in beaumont, maybe over towards vitor and orange again. This is going to change. We’Ve got let’s see tonight tomorrow, night, which is saturday night and then sunday night, so um we’re getting down to uh, starting to see some things as far as how much we’re going to see so here’s midnight. Why are they going to see more up in the lakes area, because they’ve already started icing by midnight and they’ve had icing going on for several hours that’s? Why these more of an impact up towards maybe the lakes area? So we’ll put this into motion, but everything turns pink and notice.
You could see individual fine details that you cannot see on global models, that’s why these high resolution models are so much better, so it’s all freezing rain and sleet through 6 a.m. It picks up in intensity as we head towards uh the morning hours and then, unfortunately, this is only going to go out until midnight or until noon on monday, but i think it will be winding down by two three o’clock in the afternoon. Yes, that’s snow it’s, not in the triangle, but i don’t think it’s going to be a happy time and be excited about it when you’ve got ice and no power, okay. Otherwise, i love this graphic because it shows why this is going to be freezing rain and why your app says snow and why we think it’s going to be freezing rain and not snow, because we have a melting layer, a deep melting layer and a very thin Layer of freezing temperatures – maybe only 2 000 feet above the surface. That is going to allow all that rain. That has melted from the clouds to come down and accumulate over power lines. Trees, cars, bridges, overpasses everything. Now, as this begins to move out, we think that the thickness of this warm layer may decrease and the amount of cold air may become deeper instead of 2000 feet. It may go to 5000 feet and that may be enough time to allow the drops raindrops that are liquid to become bbs of ice ice pellets called sleet we’re, not counting on the snow here in the triangle.
You may see that up in the lakes area a few flakes before the system moves out now, but that’s why we are going with what we’re going with and again it is just going to get progressively colder monday low of 29, maybe 34 in beaumont. You may not be above freezing on monday in say, coma, nil, sperger jasper. So that means everything that’s on the ground is ice is going to stick around, probably until early tuesday afternoon. Hopefully we get above freezing and with maybe the mid 30s up in the lakes area coming up tuesday, not going to melt a lot. So this may be a couple days: you’re not going to go anywhere when you’re talking about historic cold of 9, 10. 11. 12 degrees, burkeville newton, jasper, uh, damn b, probably sperger, coming ill woodville. You get the idea that’s, who i’m talking about 9 10. 11 12 degrees, then from south of there all the way to the gulf could see 13 to 17 degrees. It has not been that cold in southeast texas since december 25th, 1983. that’s not far away from the 10 we set back in 1906.. Records have been kept since 1901. Wind chills could be near single digits and teens coming up monday with the freezing, rain and sleet. Then we got the cold covered up on tuesday. So far, no watches, no warnings, no advisories. In effect for southeast texas, except for chambers, liberty, county and polk county will we be placed under an advisory or watch? Yes, i think so, when probably tomorrow, what do you think it’s going to be winter weather advisory right now tonight could be some patchy precipitation up in the lakes area, you’re right around freezing yeah, okay, maybe a sprinkle, maybe some light drizzle or freezing drizzle.
But tomorrow is going to be cold we’re not going to get above. Maybe the mid up really the upper 30s in the lakes and i’m going to be a generous guy tonight and go with uh 40 to the lower 40s in the lakes, so we’re good for the most part, except for saturday night. The lakes area will probably have a 20, maybe 30 percent probability of freezing drizzle or rain sunday. We’Ll go with 35 in in beaumont and 44 in the lakes area are 44 in the. As far as the high at 20 percent goes to uh 80 coverage coming up late sunday night and we begin a crippling ice storm. When i say crippling, i don’t want to mince words. I want you to understand. This is a serious scenario for us. This means power outages. This means you’re not going anywhere. You are going to be stuck where you are, we may not get much above freezing, hopefully we can get above freezing in beaumont. I expect us to be out of here by 3 p.m, and then we set the stage as we clear the skies we fall to maybe 9 10 11 degrees up and towards jasper and 15 degrees in beaumont, maybe 17 in port, arthur 16, 15, possibly 14. In orange, and hopefully above freezing on the afternoon, if not, then that means we got another scenario coming in on wednesday. I’M. Sorry, i cannot go with freezing uh, sleet or snow here in the triangle.
As of yet, i do think it’s going to be mainly north of the triangle, a good chance of rain, a cold rain here in the triangle, and then that goes bye, bye and we stay cold with another hard freeze. As we work on into friday of next week as that sky finally clears so red bar day coming up on monday, and really you could go red bar day on tuesday, because that is potentially damaging because of the ice and also because of the plumbing concerns. Coming up tuesday that’s, the very latest let’s take questions zach um. We have one person asking: how does this compare to 1997? As far as duration goes it’s not going to be as long 97 was two to three days if i’m, remembering correctly, this is going to be 15 to maybe 18 hours, that precipitation will fall coming up on monday, so i don’t think it’s going to be quite As much icing, some people are asking power outages. Are they going to be worse than more north? You go most likely and that all depends on where the icing the best icing sets up um. I was just showing you at the top of this uh. The Music icing product that we have the modeling here the reason that it’s going to be higher up towards the lakes area, i think we’re all going to have similar amounts, what we call qpf amounts of precipitation across the area. The problem is, the ice is going to be occurring earlier than the triangle that’s.
Why you see more purple up that way, so yeah there could be more power outages out that way, but you know anywhere, you have trees anywhere close to power lines that some of those branches could come down and bring the lines down. Plus you’ve got the weight of the ice that’s going to be on those power lines that could bring those down too. So, hopefully i answer that question correctly, for you um. How early will things start to freeze over most likely like sunday, night yeah? I think right now it looks like we may start getting freezing rain, maybe towards um i’ll, go with eight or nine up in the lakes area sunday evening, and then this is midnight here in the triangle, one two three and it starts to turn over to ice Freezing rain, okay, any additional questions. Um a lot of people are asking about uh, wednesday and thursday. As far as uh will those conditions be as bad as the monday hard to say that i i’ve been addressing most all my most of my energy and concern uh. As we approach this first system, um from what i have seen, i haven’t spent a lot of time on next wednesday, but from what i’ve seen is that they’re going to be another? Warm nose, go back to that graphic there’s, going to be another warm nose? What we call it a warm layer here in beaumont so i’m, not i’m, not thinking that it’s going to be it’s either going to be rain.
It may be all rain here in beaumont coming up on wednesday, but um north of the triangle, yeah freezing rain, sleet and snow. Up. That way i have someone asking about rainfall totals, i guess, for flooding concerns, or is it mainly the ice that’s a concern? The ice is the biggest concern. Flooding is a limited concern right now. How much ice are you going to get on your power line that goes from you from the pole to your house is what is my biggest concern right now and if any trees come down or are significant portions of trees come down because of the weight of The ice that’s, what we’re concerned about right now and if there’s, what kind of roads are going to be open coming up on monday, bridges and overpasses? You know how 69 ties into i 10 right there. At that turn. That’S all elevated that’s all got to be sanded.