We are here, of course, to talk about college, basketball, dfs and betting. We just had one of the best final four games of all time in ucla, taking on gonzaga man. That was awesome, and now we get the matchup we’ve wanted all season, long baylor, taking on gonzaga in the finals, a game that was initially cancelled due to covet 19. But we are here we made it to the finals. This will be the last college, basketball stream of the year, so thank you to everyone. That’S been here along with us, appreciate you very much if you subscribe to, like any videos, participate in the chat. Thank you before we get started. I am linking my data sheet into the chat for you guys that is live on twitch now. You can also find this in the description of the video on youtube. It is free to use so take advantage of this. If you would like this is going to be probably the most highly anticipated finals game national championship game that we’ve seen in quite some time here, the number one, the number two team, basically across the board in all metrics baylor taking on gonzaga the spread, is four And a half in favor of the bulldogs, the total is 159 and a half. You saw this open at 160.. It’S come down a little bit. The line has stayed pat right at four and a half here. First things to mention gonzaga they’re, the number one offense baylor they’re, the number two offense.
This is just efficiency on defense. Gonzaga ranks tenth baylor ranks. 22Nd. Baylor is a little bit weaker on defense overall they’re outside the top 125. In both two point, defense and three point defense, but still very good, gonzaga right outside the top 50 in both their 76th in three point defense, but the main things here in the batting markets. I did take gonzaga against the spread minus four and a half and here’s why we’ll dive into the betting markets first and then we’ll talk dfs plays for showdown. Everything like that, so both of these teams have played very good competition throughout the year now in the tournament. I think this maybe even skews a little bit baylor’s way, but both teams have good wins baylor in particular, the way they play basketball they’re, going to be a smaller team, they’re very reliant on the three point shot they’re the number one three point: shooting team in The country they shoot 41.2 percent, but their starters are all a little smaller, so jared butler, 6, 3 matriotic is six four david mitchell’s six two and then mark vitale he’s. Only six five. You have players like adam flagler, six, three and then they start getting their size from some of these 20 per minute game players like matt mayer, who’s, six, nine and jordan chamachacha who’s, six, eight and flo thambo who’s, six ten. I think this is a tough stylistic matchup against a gonzaga team who does field some considerable size.
They obviously have drew timmy who’s 610, but then they also have some size and corey kissbert who’s. Six, seven jaylen suggs is even a 6’4 joella. Yae is 6’5 even andrew nemheart is 6’5 that’s, some very good size across the board, which matches up pretty well against a baylor team here who comes in a little bit smaller again, four of the five baylor starters are six five or smaller. So that could be an issue here. If we look at just what happened this year, baylor had two losses: they came against kansas and oklahoma state. Obviously those were two terrible shooting games for baylor. They shot 23 percent from three against kansas. They shot 21.4 percent against oklahoma state. Those are both from beyond the ark and that’s how baylor is winning their games now they also did not rebound well in those games either against kansas. They lost the rebounding battle. 43 25. They allowed 35 rebounds against oklahoma state that was the most and the fourth most rebounds they’ve allowed in any games this year, which could be an issue against a gonzaga team who rebounds fairly well. If we just look at what gonzaga does on the glass, they rank 67th in rebounds in the country. Meanwhile, baylor’s not a bad rebounding team, they rank 137th. But again, these size advantages that we do see here with gonzaga may manifest themselves and even in the tournament they’ve struggled to rebound in some spots, so excluding the hartford game that was just a cupcake win for baylor.
We saw wisconsin out rebound baylor 29 25 wisconsin. Just committed 13 turnovers and blew the game. Baylor only had four so easy, one for baylor nova out, rebounded them. 30 27. They obviously have jeremiah robinson earl, but they also committed a multitude of turnovers 15 turnovers to baylor’s. Five nova is playing without colin gillespie. Their main ball handler that will not be the case with gonzaga here: arkansas rebounded, this baylor team, 31 26, but arkansas also committed 15 turnovers to baylor’s. Eight, so baylor’s been losing the rebounding battle, but they’ve been winning the turnover battle pretty substantially in their last game. Baylor actually did win the rebounding battle. 28. 25, but houston does not have a starter taller than six seven, so it was not a difficult stylistic matchup for the baylor bears. Now we talked about turnovers a lot baylor’s fantastic at forcing them that’s how they’ve won a lot of games or at least put themselves in position to win games, their sixth in overall turnover, defense, that’s, creating turnovers. However, gonzaga is a team that does not turn the ball over a time they average 12 turnovers per game that ranks 260th in the country. So this may be an issue for baylor, somewhat reliant on the turnover gonzaga, a team that’s fairly secure with the ball and a team that creates a lot of turnovers themselves gonzaga on defense. They rank number 48 in turnovers, created now on the gonzaga side, we’ve seen them in competitive games all year.
They actually by competitive. I mean good competition, they actually weren’t competitive. If we look at their margin of victories, the closest win that they just had came against. Ucla that three point victory in overtime, but there was a stat. I saw on twitter that just really shed light on how well ucla played they shot 57.6 from the field. They only committed 10 turnovers and they held gonzaga to seven three point: shots made teams that hit all three of those marks in games this year had a cumulative record of 98 and one gonzaga. One just shows how good that team actually is to overcome a ucla team at peak performance. Again, gonzaga has now played 31 games. They’Ve won 29 of them by double digits. They’Ve won 25 by 14 plus points. This gonzaga team hasn’t missed, and that includes wins over kansas. They won by 12. auburn. They won that game 90 67. West virginia was the only other single digit win. It was 87 82 iowa. They won by 11 points and scored 99. virginia. They won 98 to 75 and then in the tournament, very good competition face oklahoma. They went 87 71 creighton, 83, 65 and usc 85 66, so gonzaga very much playing in track meets holding advantages over baylor here. To sum it all up. That is why i took gonzaga minus four and a half against the spread. They faced very good competition, they’ve rolled a lot of very good competition and they hold the stylistic advantages to overcome baylor here for dfs.
This is going to be a really interesting contest. We’Re. Looking at narrow distributions of minutes, i think across the board, baylor’s going to go through their three studs jared, butler, matriotieg and davion mitchell. Those are the three players i think we want to look at in the captain slot on draftkings. Those are the three main usage players we are isolating for baylor now. Baylor still has a great team, total they’re, only four and a half point underdogs. So i think you can captain some of these players, a player like jared butler, he’s, the second most expensive guy. On the slate but he’s far less expensive than a drew timmy, so i think he’s still serviceable. He has the 20 and a half percent usage rate. We just saw a fantastic game out of jared butler after he’d actually struggled early in the tournament. He wasn’t shooting the ball very well. He only took nine shots in their most recent game against houston, but he scored 17 points. Great peripheral involvement, four rebounds excuse me: five rebounds four assists in the previous games, two previous at least shot four of eleven and four or fourteen. So it was nice to see jared butler rebound and have a ceiling performance from there. It was a little bit limited minutes for teague. He only played 29 again, they rolled houston, so there was no need to get teague out there. He only shot one of five from three 11 points.
Teague is very involved in the periphery, so i think you could see teague, especially if late he’s been more involved in the periphery too, with the 14 13 and a half percent rebound rate 16 assist rate he’s a strong buy low right now he was actually more Expensive than davey and mitchell in the most recent slate that has more than corrected so teague is going to be. I think your value captain, if you’re, trying to jam multiple studs in your flex spots, obviously there’s a ton of upside with teague he’s, mainly a shooter 19 shot rate for him david mitchell. Again he was the third most expensive stud on baylor in their last game. He’S absolutely priced correctly, now 36 minutes in their last contest, he’s taken 20 of the shots. His peripheral involvement comes mostly via that assist rate, which is ‘ he’s going to be in play too the rest of baylor. They basically just function, as i think contrarian flex plays or flex plays, that you want to take a look at, but nobody sees consistent minutes. The first thing, i’ll point out is mark. Vitale has been in foul trouble each of the last two games and he hasn’t even reached 20 minutes in their last contest. Vital finishes with four fouls and 15 minutes played. He only scored two points, their second most recent game. He actually fouled out completely. He had five fouls in 18 minutes, so vitale is somebody who will play 25 ish minutes, assuming everything is fine with vitale he’s, not fouling, but that is an assumption we can’t guarantee.
He has shown that he’ll foul a lot in games. Vital also has a size disadvantage in the post he’s. Only six five, so it’s not like vital, has a fantastic match up here either, but he is the main rebounder for this team, even in their last three games, he’s still taking 17 percent of them, that’s 18. On the year, if you’re betting against vital and maybe looking at some foul trouble, the primary beneficiaries are jordan, chamochachua and matt mayer. Those are the only other two players with any decent size on baylor that play minutes. Flothamba has good size but he’s locked into like a 15 minute per game. Roll mayer is somebody who will shoot the ball a lot and his shot rate and rebound rate. Don’T look fantastic over the last three games, but his minutes are so limited. So, as far as just players on the periphery that have a chance to hit a ceiling game, matt mayer does, if we just look at how many shots he’s taken in their most recent games, he in their last game took 10 shots scored 12 points. Second, most recent game: six shots scored seven points. Third, most recent game. He takes six shots from the bench that’s enough to get you there, if, as long as he makes them flagler’s also taken six shots in three straight games, so flagler a bit more expensive minutes are slightly more consistent. He has a chance to hit 25 or so, but i think, with mitchell, teague and butler playing expected to play 35 plus minutes, flagler’s, probably locked into a minute ceiling here.
I think i would rather save with matt mayer just taking the extra savings. This is flipped on fanduel, where you get flagler at a cheaper price but that’s where i’m looking and chamo joshua benefits, primarily from vitale’s fowl issues. He’S dominating via his rebound rate, i’ll, be mixing and matching the ancillary players on baylor, but you’re really trying to jam in two of the studs on gonzaga. We have timmy, of course, absolutely dominant performances in the last couple games. Timmy 25 points in their last game. 23 points in their second most recent game and even in their third most recent game, he has 22 points, he’s been absolutely dominant of late. He took 14 19 and 15 shots in that span. There hasn’t been anyone able to stop him. He now draws an immense size advantage over most of the baylor bigs outside of those ancillary players that played 20 minutes per game, but he also has an immense talent advantage over those players as well so timmy, even at an elevated price, deserves consideration. I do prefer saving the salary and going down to kiss bert and suggs kiss bird in particular is a buy low. He just has not shot the ball well at all, since he’s been in the tournament in their last three games. Kiss bird is six of 13. Six of 19 and then in the third most recent game. He went five of eight, just not as involved in those contests but kissbert.
He is typically not shooting this poorly, even from three he shot. Thirty percent and twenty five percent in their last two games, he’s a forty six percent three point shooter on the season and he still either led the team in shots or tied the team in shots or been second on the team of shots in each of their Last three games so kisper somebody, i think we could definitely buy low on. I like his price, quite a bit here and somebody that you can just look to with a ceiling because of the shot rate it’s 20 in the year it’s, even up on that 21.5. In the last three games, which just hasn’t shown in the box score kiss bird also involved via rebound rate 21 percent there, he does have size again kiss bird six, seven at the base, he’s basically taller than all, but one baylor starter, and you look at where Baylor is vulnerable on defense, they’re 125 against the three 126 interior. He can exploit both those matchups jalen suggs, the hero of the last game. You obviously need to consider suggs here too he’s the most involved across all statistical categories for this team in their last three 16 shot rate, 21 rebound rate 28 and a half percent. This is straight for suggs. If you’re, looking at the prop markets, i’ve been hammering his assist props, you can find him usually at three and a half or four and a half, so i love him there, but he’s also a captain.
We need to consider again. I would like to get two of the three gonzaga studs. I would like to get two of the three baylor studs when you’re doing that: you’re, probably getting teague, you’re, probably getting kiss burt and then mixing and matching timmy, suggs, baylor and mitchell outside of that, the value plays on gonzaga are all priced up on the last Slide we saw nem hart at 5k he’s up at 9k. Here he just plays way more consistent minutes than the baylor ancillary plays. So him at this price makes a ton of sense. I don’t love him for dfs. The usage rate of 15 is fine, but he just hasn’t been very involved 13 and a half percent shot rate 28.5 assist rate for nem hard here at 9k. I would rather try to find the extra salary to get to teague but he’s in play, just because he plays so many minutes and if you’re looking for contrarian approaches, he could make some sense. Joella yae he’ll also play almost every single minute. This 29 minute game. You see smashed in between 42 and 34 minutes. He got hit in the face was dealing with like a tooth injury for a little bit, but he came out finished the game, so he’s not hurt but that’s why the minutes were a little lower. He had the best game of his career, maybe in the final four against ucla, but 16 shot rate 21 rebound rate i’ve been hitting his rebound props pretty hard and i haven’t always hit, but i think in elevated minutes, he’s still going to be a solid play Here the players coming off the bench are anton watson and aaron cook.
So the difference between these guys, i think they only see a ceiling if someone gets in foul trouble, but cook is six one, so he’ll primarily replace the guards like suggs or nem hart. If one of them gets in foul trouble anton watson, he plays a bit more than co or excuse me, aaron cook plays a bit more than anton watson, excuse that disregard anton watson plays a little more than aaron cook. Typically, you can see even in their last three games, that’s, because sometimes they just spell timmy a little more, so i think anton watson’s, the safer play he’s, not very involved, neither really are but anton watson. He also brings some size here – he’s 6 8, which takes advantage of baylor’s smaller team. So if you’re looking at ancillary plays here slightly prefer watson but aaron cook at 3k, he basically plays 10 minutes a game they might just be plays because you want to take the studs in this game and rather than play the middling players on baylor. Maybe you access the true ceiling to your lineup by doing the complete stars and scrubs approach. Whatever the combination of let’s just say, hypothetically you’d go drew timmy and aaron cook that might give you more points than like uh, a matt mayer and a majio teague. So things to consider for the single game slate. Interestingly, this is a slate where we don’t have a ton of options available to us.
I think in gpps the true deciding factor is going to be. The value plays how you approach. Baylor’S five value plays how you approach the two value plays on gonzaga and i think those will decide tournaments, mixing and matching the studs, but for captain very much looking at kissbert as a contrarian option, just due to price in his poor. Shooting lately love butler. But i would take a look at davey and mitchell here, who’s a bit of a bilo after their last game. I think you can get to excuse me. Teague who’s, a bit of a bylo mitchell had a good game. I think both of them are in play as just contrarian plays off butler but that’s, really, where i’m looking in dfs and again bet bail. Excuse me bet gonzaga against the spread here having trouble speaking this morning, my goodness barrick good to see you happy easter, you’re. The only one in chat today i did not announce the stream it’s a bit of a surprise stream, but if you guys are watching this on youtube and you have questions feel free to throw them in the comment section and i will get to them. Thank you. All for the fantastic college, basketball season, i had a blast and i hope you guys did too it’s been a lot of fun and we get just an absolute phenomenal game to close things out with baylor taking on gonzaga right now i have gonzaga minus four and A half we’ll be betting, a ton of props, so i will tweet those out as they start opening and betting markets.
I already saw a few early ones: dfs don’t, be afraid to get off the board here, just a single game slate. You know where people are going to play: they’re going to play songs, kisper, timmy they’re, going to play mitchell teague butler let’s have fun with this. One guys hope one of you takes it down, but otherwise that will do it.