Now we also have a slight risk that extends around this enhance here, which extends actually all the way into um the north central us here and then that marginal risk here that extends from canada all the way and to the um, the more eastern side or northeast Of the us here so now, if we jump to our tornado outlook here now we have a five percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles here. Uh yesterday was only a two percent chance in this region, but they bumped it up to a five percent, which means we have a higher chance of seeing a few tornadoes um in these regions here so that’s. What we’ll have to be watching out for especially later during our live coverage, we’ll be watching out for some possible tornadoes, um touching down in that region uh. Now, if we take a look at our wind twist here, you can see we have a 30 chance here for uh strong winds over 60 mile per hour and in this black region here. This is saying that there is a significant risk for um strong winds, so we could be seeing winds up to about 80 mile per hour gusts uh in these thunderstorms here, so we could be seeing really strong winds, especially behind the line uh, as this line moves South here, so the one would most likely look like this a bit and would be moving south into that area right there and now, if we take a look at our tail right here, it looks just about the same now um, although that sig here is a Little bit more west centered here um, but you can see we have that 30 chance for large, hail, uh over two inches in diameter and that’s significant, so possibly even larger than that um over there, and then that 15 chance over here and then that five percent Around that 15 now, if we jump over to our severe weather threats now this is my prediction and you can see.
I definitely bumped up these estimates pretty high. So yesterday we only had a uh, i believe, a moderate to high risk for damaging winds. But i bumped that up to an extreme threat and the reason being because we have that sig uh for those really strong winds and that 30, so it’s kind of on the lower end of the extreme scale, but definitely an extreme threat for strong winds. Especially if you’re in those areas and uh when the line passes over you and now, if we move on to hail risk here, you can see we have a high risk for hail, and this is my prediction again, but you could see a high risk because of That 30 chance and that stick there, i think the chance for those wins a little. Those uh pale is a little lower than the winds uh, but still real real high threat for that and our tornado threat here remains low. Keep in mind. This is my prediction, but it’s, basically the highest level of low you can get, i would say, um and i would actually potentially uh bump this up to a moderate risk later today. Potentially, if anything really does change, but for now i’m going to keep it a low, but now let’s actually take a closer look into the um spectrum here. So this is actually a more in depth. Look of what those um! What i’m saying whoops here to our general risk for all the severe weather i’m, giving it a high to extreme right here, uh tornadoes i’m, giving it a low to moderate here.
So if it was any closer, i would say if it got into this region right here, which is likely that it will, i will bump it up to a moderate risk there uh our damaging wind threat. I put this at an extreme right on the dead center of extreme here, as we’re gon na have a big big, big, damaging wind threat, large hail, it’s on the edge of extreme and high here, but definitely a pretty big um hail threat and our flooding risks And the flooding risk – this is my prediction still but it’s based off the uh weather prediction, centers get more graphics, so i’m going to say there’s a high to extreme risk here for that flash flooding during some of these thunderstorms. Now here is that wpc outlook here the weather prediction center’s forecast for today. This is our day one outlook for excessive rainfall, and you can see now we have that big moderate risk right there for the heavy rainfall there so second highest, you can get that’s a 20 to 50 percent chance, definitely on the higher scale, maybe more 40 percent. There so that’s we have to watch out for a lot of flooding and then that slider surrounding that and then again that marginal, which extends all the way into canada um there. Now, if we take a look at the weather prediction center weather overview for the day, you can see our severe thunderstorms possible risk area has gone a lot larger.
It now extends in here, and you can see right underneath that we have that flash flooding potential. So we could be seeing those thunderstorms with flash flooding potential anywhere from over here. I would say anywhere in this region right here so we’re at the really watching really watching out for that really strong uh, strong storms and heavy rainfall – and you can see this is actually associated with this cold front right here and a stationary front which will be Pushing down and be pushing that linear line down here now, let’s take a look at our convective setup. Now uh, you may have noticed from the last video. The instability risk has gone down a little bit used to be more in the center. Here. It went down down to here, um so it’s on the border of high to extreme there, but definitely pretty high wind shear has gone up to the center of extreme. Now it’s going to be seeing a really strong wind shear, especially in these storms here and then the upper support i put on the edge of a high and extreme here. So we could be seeing um we’re, seeing a lot of upper support, which is definitely good for storms um, because that uh cold front is moving through the generating lift for these storms and the overall storm threat it’s a high to extreme kind of on the edge. I might bump it up to an extreme um, but that’s, mostly if uh the instability goes up a little bit.
I will bump it up now. If we take a look at the surface based cape model here, you can see we’re seeing really high cape levels. 4. 000 up to 5 000 in some of these areas. Here you can see it gets a little higher where those storms are going to be and then eventually will die out. But you can see on the edge of 5 000 joules per kilogram, which is definitely enough for storms, and this is just excessive uh instability. I might have to bump this uh instability level up a bit more since this is the new model run that just came out uh, so we’ll see in the live stream that i will be doing later doing live coverage. I might bump it up and i might in the beginning, say i bumped this prediction up a bit uh. Now. If we take a look at our wind shear, you can see we have a lot of wind shear in some of these storms. Um lots of winds here definitely very good for those storms here now the once you’re around it is decent, not that great, but the winter in the storms is really what matters so a lot of wind shear there and i would like to bring attention to the K index, and usually i don’t say this: uh the k index or anything usually don’t bring it in, but you could see these high values right here, they’re going into the they’re up to 49 on the k index there, and that means that numerous two extreme storms Are possible in that region, so we really have to be watching out for very strong thunderstorms in some of these regions here, because anything over 35 is numerous severe storms.
So we have to be watching out for really strong storms, especially in this region. Right here and now, let’s actually take a look at our composite reflectivity on the hr model, and you can see this is right before everything fires up you’re, seeing a few cells right here, starting to form now the timing i’m still not perfectly sure when the timing Is going to really uh be moving, but you can see if we go a few more models out, you can see a line starts to form right here. These cells right here are all going to link up and become a pretty strong line right there um that line gets pretty strong, and this one’s gon na be moving south, possibly bring those really strong, winds and stuff like that uh behind it. So i would say anywhere back behind this line: that’s we got to watch out for those winds there and you can see this line is going to get pretty strong before it starts to weaken there, and we we even might be seeing this bowing here, which is A sign of the winds getting a lot stronger in the storm here, um like that, so that we have to be watching out for it’s, actually i’ll show it charts like that. So that’s pretty watching out for those really strong storms and stuff like that um, but yeah that’s, how far the model goes down. So this is the last model uh frame that’s available at the moment on the h triple r model.
But then again we have to watch this pretty closely uh and we will be doing live coverage later. So i will be uh streaming later doing. Coverage of all the thunderstorms, possible tornadoes and large hail, and everything like that and all the impacts i’ll be doing that later today, probably around four to five p.m: i’ll start that stream uh here’s our can get here’s our convective mode and i’ve been saying this over The past few days, it’s going to be linear and it’s almost a guarantee that we’re going to be seeing linear storms right here uh, since it is a line. Maybe a few supercells are possible and i would say all four types are impossible: uh like isolated, supercells, isolated, multi cells or pulse storms are possible still, but the main threat is going to be linear thunderstorms. Today and finally, let’s head to my forecast, my 7 out of 10 forecast here now, you may have noticed yesterday i had a 6 out of 10, but i did bump that up to a 7 out of 10 as promised um as we did get an enhanced Risk for severe weather um today, so it is a seven will it bump. Will i bump it up to an eight it’s possible if uh the threat gets a little bit worse because we could possibly be seeing after ratio or anything like that. Um, just really strong wind threat as possible, so we’re definitely doing live coverage, and i wanted to mention that i now i just got geoanalyst uh for my stream.
So now we have 3d radar available and um. Everything like that 3d radar and just a lot of better parameters and stuff so we’ll, be using that on the stream as well uh to better better visualize, the storms and tornadoes and stuff like that. So that should definitely make the stream a lot better quality and help everyone understand exactly what the storms are doing and what’s going on so yeah. This is my overall forecast, 7 out of 10., so i would say 70 chance of this being a pretty big weather event here, um still not sure what the 7 out of 10 means, but 7 out of 10 means pretty bad storms are possible here, um 10. If, if anyone is wondering what is a 10 as hand, that would most likely be a high risk and 8 out of 10 or 9 out of 10 would be a moderate risk for severe weather there, so that is what um is happening. They might actually bump this up to a moderate, and if they do, then i will put an 8 out of 10 there on the scale um for that severe weather, so yeah. I want to thank everyone for watching this video. I hope everyone found it informative and i hope everyone just enjoyed the video. I will be posting on my twitter page of updates on the severe weather all day, um uh before it happens during during it happens, and after the stream also that um so yeah.
My twitter page is the best place to get some weather information other than the national weather service and its branches, so definitely recommend you check out those websites for the information on this and my twitter page. Also, all those links are going to be down below in the description, so you can check them out and i just passed 50 followers on twitter, so yeah. Thank you so much everyone for uh following me on there anyway. Thank you so much everyone for watching uh. This video, i hope everyone found it enjoyed it. If anyone does any comments, questions concerns all that will be um answered if you put them in the comment section below and yeah.