Look at tropical storm elsa maximum sustained winds 65 miles per hour, a little bit less now compared to earlier today and notice. The pressure, a thousand four millibars that’s, pretty high for a strong tropical storm and now it’s only moving at 17 miles per hour notice, southwest florida still in the cone, but the cone again has shifted to the west. This is what i talked about wednesday and thursday when i was talking about the storm and how fast it was going. The models tend to keep it more to the east, now we’re, seeing it going to the west, and it has slowed down not expecting the cone to change all that. Much now that it’s going 17 miles per hour. Tropical storm watch is in effect for coastal collier county down in monroe county as well as key west. Now you see, the convection here is looking really good on tropical satellite, but six hours ago it wasn’t. I want to bring rachel in, and i want to show an analogy now: i’ve been talking over the past several days of a storm being vertically stacked. So if you put the two plates right over top of each other, the top plates, the mid level of the storm circulation and the bottom plate is the low level circulation. Well, the low level circulation is moving a little bit quicker than the upper level circulation and you see by those paper plates they’re, not vertically stacked. The storm is tilted a bit and that’s what kept the storm a little bit weaker.
So, thank you rachel for that, but now it’s moving slower so again, it’s looking a lot better. We do have a ridge of high pressure and that’s what’s steering elsa to the south, but that ridge is weakening a bit and this trough is digging into the eastern part of the country. So elsa is going to want to follow the break between the trough and the ridge, and that could happen as early as sunday afternoon by monday, that ridge is still pretty weak. A little piece of the end of the trough breaks off into the gulf of mexico. That again will help nudge elsa to the north and northeast eventually and then into tuesday into wednesday. We’Ll see that northern easterly turn and again that’s the important part. Where is it going to enter that break? Gfs model has once again elsa right around the cuba area monday morning. Then it moves into the florida straits and to the eastern gulf come monday evening, but it should be as close as it will be to southwest florida come tuesday right around lunchtime and then it races to the north. So by wednesday, as you head to work, conditions will be a lot better and then it races off to the northeast tropical storm force. Wind are possible as early as late monday, but more so into tuesday, and then into tuesday evening. We’Ll start to see the wind subside a bit percent chance of tropical storm force, wind, the greatest along lee county islands, between 40 and 50 percent east of i 75, 30 percent or less but again, elsa still has a lot to go through land interaction with cuba.
Some wind shear as well live doppler radar back home, looking pretty good southwest florida, not all that bad and you can see just a few clouds most of the cloud cover associated with that trough that i showed you to the north and that’s where the rain was At today and we’re not going to see much if any in the way of rain at all on sunday, in fact, it’s looking pretty dry in the morning, maybe an isolated shower or two east of i 75, so get the barbecues going for your fourth of july. Things looking good monday afternoon, that’s we can expect more shower and thunderstorm activity after a sunny morning and then tuesday will be the day that elsa could bring us some rain and breezy conditions. Today, 93 immokalee and labelle upper 80’s to around 90 degrees along the coast and again that was the high temperatures for today now we’re in the upper 70s to around 80 for the most part, still the humid side, a light wind out of the west and northwest Overnight 77 degrees, it’s, going to be a warm and humid morning, definitely notice that when you step out the door, one o’clock temperature 90 degrees mainly dry conditions. But again a few inland storms will be occurring for the fourth of july afternoon into the evening. Don’T think any firework displays will be canceled or postponed because it will probably be pretty dry by sunset: temperatures in the low 90’s throughout the day, west northwest wind, boaters 10 to 15 knots, two to three feet: offshore and a moderate chop on those inland waterways.