Well, the good news is with elsa, even though the pressure is dropped, indicating strengthening the winds have not come up, and also good for us is that the storm is remaining a small size, so the tropical storm force wind field remains the same at about 70 miles From the center, which means only a very small area of southwest florida is actually going to be seeing some of these gusts here in the next several hours here’s the latest look at the storm. It looks terrible on satellite from the storm’s perspective. It is getting ripped apart by upper level shear, but despite that, it is trying really hard to strengthen with some of those darker maroon and red blobs. Indicating the colder cloud tops the thunderstorms trying to build up in the atmosphere and that’s where your stronger winds are right under those thunderstorms, as now they’re kind of displaced to the right or to the east of the center, which isn’t favorable for significant strengthening. So we don’t expect this thing to really ramp up before it makes landfall but notice based on the coastline of florida and how it kind of slopes off to the north and west and the angle of attack or the angle of approach. Kind of more of an oblique approach, angle, approach to the coast, it’s going straight north it’s, going to likely move at least the strongest winds up towards areas north of our region as far south, perhaps as coastal coastal sections of charlotte county but sarasota county, and then Points off towards the north up to areas around tampa bay.
Now this is the latest advisory. As i mentioned, there was strength in the pressure down to 998 millibars moving north at 10. So it’s picked up a little bit of speed. We do expect it to accelerate or pick up speed later tonight into tomorrow morning, because it gets picked up by the upper level westerly winds by tomorrow afternoon, two o’clock. This thing will be on shore and then eventually moving up into georgia and the carolinas here, as we go into the late evening, hours wednesday into thursday there’s the circulation right now on radar, you can see all the darker reds indicate where those stronger winds are and The heaviest rain and notice that they’re getting very close to coastal lee county and charlotte county so we’ll be watching that for the next several hours, the rest of southwest florida, just seeing spotty showers at the present time and some steadier rain, perhaps down 41, and also I 75 that tropical storm warning remains in effect here from coastal charlotte all the way through southward through portions of collier county, mainly the coastal sections and it’s near the coast that we expect those strongest winds. Sarasota also included in that as well. The strongest winds will be again in that northern area from northern portions of charlotte county all the way through sarasota county, also tornado watch, in effect until 11 o’clock, and we also have a storm surge warning, in effect with two to four foot: storm surge immediately to The right of where it makes landfall, which is likely to be north of our area but water rise one two three feet not out of the question as far south as collier county, but you can see the wind field there as it approaches the coast, pay close Attention to the orange circle and notice where it goes sarasota county and is closest to the cape haze peninsula into charlotte county that’s, where the strongest winds will be.
But the yellow area does encompass lee county charlotte county and down into collier county as well near the coast where we could see some of those tropical storm force, wind gusts, but cindy what’s, going to happen after this looks like we should see some improving conditions later On tonight and tomorrow correct – yes, i do believe so things are going to look better by late tonight into tomorrow, but this is such a good, an example of an east loaded tropical system, because of all that shear that’s trying to push it this direction. All this rain continues to wrap mostly on the east side of the system. So again, the best chance for any tornadic development is going to be to the northeast of the center. So that would be right across sarasota county charlotte county lee county down into parts of collier county right now so we’re watching for that we haven’t seen any warnings recently, at least in the last couple of hours, so that’s good news. This air is being worked over now, but that rain shield is all way north now into the central parts of florida, and we still have a lot of feeder bands coming out here in the southwestern gulf just to the north of key west florida there’s, some stronger Storms there and all that has yet to wrap in so again, tropical storm warning remains, in effect along the coastal areas and again that storm surge warning if you do live in those low lying areas, that’s something to be aware of and again that flood watch yes Low lying areas, we see a lot of flooding here across southwest florida, really no difference.
If you live in a flood prone area, you’re, probably going to see that don’t drive onto flooded roads turn around don’t drown, there’s, so much tropical moisture, that’s riding across the state right now drier air trying to wrap in behind this thing and that’s part of that Shear, that wants to kill it off, but it’s not going to be strong enough to do it. It doesn’t look like that. So as it also moves away, the effects are going to drop down so still at eight o’clock tonight, 100 chance you’re going to get that rain by midnight. It’S dropping down tomorrow morning about a 50 percent chance noon, we’re still going to see some residual showers and storms and by tomorrow afternoon elsa will be well off to the north and east. We can say goodbye to it and our weather conditions are going to get back to normal, more of a southeasterly flow, so we’ll see some scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Weather threats still remain through tonight, though locally heavy rainfall could see three to five inches locally up to eight inches possible flooding of low lying areas. Of course, tropical storm force winds still possible, especially along the coastal areas and funnel clouds and tornadoes we’ve had three reports today. Nothing confirmed but three reports of tornadoes. So this is the computer guidance, the modeling. You can see how the heaviest rain stays off the coast. It moves northward. You still have some residual showers and storms.
This is tomorrow morning, around 6 a.m. If you happen to have a flight tomorrow morning, i know a lot of the flights have been canceled out of the airport. Better luck on thursday, i think wouldn’t. You know that i’ve got one of those flights, so showers and thunderstorms develop again throughout the afternoon in the evening. Heaviest rain, of course, is going to be off to the north and east sarasota and charlotte county that’s. What we’re going to be looking for at the next few hours and oh through the week we’re not going to bring that down to zero percent chance we’ll, keep it at about 40 to 50 percent chance, so that will back off to more normalcy. Temperatures stayed cool today, stat set at about 75 degrees and that’s because of the clouds and the rain winds right now, strongest off the coast. Much better inland, though coming out of the southeast gusts to 25, maybe up to 40 miles per hour 76 right now in naples. With those showers, we still have them tonight: breezy rain, likely 76 tomorrow back up to 89 degrees, we’re still going to see some showers and storms and here’s your extended forecast, better conditions heading into the weekend cindy.