Looking around the world today, you can see that there’s no shortage of heat waves, but only a couple of cold spots and that’s up there in the great lakes region, the deserts are heating up. We recorded 114 yesterday in north las vegas, also canada, getting some of that heat. The hot conditions have moved out of the balkans and into much of eastern europe, so riga, latvia, reporting, 91. Music. Looking at our weather map this afternoon, it is stormy along the gulf coast, one large cluster of storms in southern mississippi and alabama, and a couple of others with a tropical disturbance located about just south of san antonio, very high conditions. Returning to the southern plains, we got 104 there at springfield and 100 at dodge city and even more heat in utah, some very hot temperatures. 105. There looks like just north of cedar city and out into the high deserts. Some cold air filtering in from the great lakes with the remnants of tropical storm elsa heading out to sea, located east of boston this afternoon and pulling some of that cold air southward through the appalachians and there’s. What our weather picture looks like in canada, a garden variety, cold air outbreak coming through quebec and into james bay, bringing those temperatures down quite a bit, but we still got the heat in the prairies. You can see lots of 90s there in central manitoba and saskatchewan and extending back over alberta and even into parts of the northwest territories.
Overall, though, not as extreme as what we had last week and even up in the high arctic, 30s and 40s. So pretty mild day, we are expecting quite a bit of heat in the southwestern u.s. What we’re seeing here is the temperatures on the hottest day over the next five days. You can see that las vegas expecting to get up to 117. That will tie their all time record if they reach that same thing at tonepa 104. That would tie the all time record, most of the other temperatures i’m, seeing around the area i’m, not seeing anything except daily records being threatened, death valley, 129 at furnace creek, but bad water basin. A little bit lower expected to get up to 1 30 on probably want to keep that out of your travel plans, phoenix expecting 114 on saturday and the san joaquin valley lots of 110s showing up. You can see the influence of the marine layer lots of 70s along the coast that’s why the rich people live on the coast. They don’t have to endure that brutal summer weather and it does look like the heat will shift northward. If we pan up a little bit, you can see that we’re, seeing very hot temperatures coming up into utah and nevada for monday. So they start out with very hot conditions, in arizona on saturday spreading into the san joaquin valley and nevada on sunday and then moving a little bit north and the reason for that, as you might expect, that big bad high there, it is right there we’re, looking At the 500 millibar chart, this is up in the mid levels of the atmosphere about 18 000 feet and that’s that high centered over the grand canyon, that other canyon, bryce canyon area and the main polar front jet well up to the north across idaho.
Down into iowa and over to that remnant of tropical storm, elsa, so that’s being picked up by the prevailing westerlies and it’s starting to transition over to your typical frontal dynamics. So moving into the weekend, what’s going to happen is going to relate closely to the position of that high. So we run that forward. There’S, the 597 contour that’s bad news, don’t see any 600s yet, but you can see that high backing off into the mojave desert death valley on sunday and then going into monday. It pretty much sets up resonance over the nevada, california border and it looks like it weekends we get rid of that 597 decameter contour, so maybe a little bit of relief for wednesday. So i know we were looking next week at a 600 decameter contour. That was way way out there, but i just want to see what happens yeah. This is next monday, next tuesday and next wednesday, so yeah there is a big high there, but i think we’ve backed off on that solution that had the big old, 600 decameter contour. So it looks like there is a little bit of a lack of confidence after the seven day point, so i would not worry too much about next week. However, the large scale pattern is likely going to happen, which involves a big old ridge across the rockies, see how that pretty much parks itself. Those large scale details – those are those are usually going to be accurate during the 7 to 14 day point, but the actual details like where’s the 600 decameter contour we’re, not going to know that we’re not going to know exactly who’s going to get the heat it Just looks hot in the western u.
s now another detail for those of us in the central and eastern u.s. We’Ve got this trough riding over the top of the ridge that’s embedded in that jet stream, and you can see that moving into the dakotas for early saturday and into the midwest for late saturday and sunday, and it really deepens quite a bit. It closes off into this low over iowa and produces some unsettled weather for the midwest. In fact, it looks like it kind of sits there over missouri and iowa, so probably a period of rain and unsettled weather in that part of the country, and then it opens up and gets picked up by the prevailing west release looks like another trough. Moving in you can see the very dark colors. The very noisy pattern that’s an indication that it may be bound up with a mesoscale convective system. So that could add a little bit of uncertainty to the location and timing, and the other thing that we want to look look at this time of year is easterlies across the gulf states. Let’S run that back the only easterlies we have to start out with are way down here you can see the flow is kind of going like that and yeah this. This develops a call, see that right there so right now, there’s a call over louisiana flow out of the north in texas and out of the south in western florida, let’s see what happens as we go into the weekend and into next week.
No easterlies. In fact, the flow is westerly across much of the southern u.s, largely due to the proximity of that low right there, a very strong upper level high across eastern north carolina, so probably some very hot weather going into early next week in that part of the country And then running forward into midweek and late next week, no easterlies. In fact, the flow is pretty light and variable checking out our major forecast. Centers storm prediction center has a couple of enhanced risks from nebraska to northern missouri, and there it is. You can see a severe thunderstorm watch for western nebraska, some thunderstorms coming out of the high plains and they could intensify as they move into some of that moisture air and another area up there in northern missouri and checking over on the nhc products. Tropical storm elsa, which is now post tropical cyclone it’s uh, moving up into maine 45 knots on that central pressure, 999 millibars has deepened a little bit, probably due to frontal development. However, the five day tropical outlook, looking pretty clear and i’m not sure we’ve ever looked at this, but the excessive rainfall outlook, moderate risk there for the coast of maine and some potential there in iowa and illinois and, of course, with that tropical disturbance in texas could Be some flooding rains in that region also and there’s? How it looks for tomorrow looks very wet between st louis and des moines, and then for sunday.
It looks like all that mess moves into the mississippi river valley and for the southwestern u.s we do have convection out there. In spite of the heat, we are cooking off the remainder of that tropical moisture that worked up through that monsoon pattern. This past week, so storms on the sierra nevadas and the moguian rim back into the great basin region – and it looks like it’s even quieted, down in northern mexico, you might remember earlier this week there were tons of storms across the mountains. There. However, one spectacular storm out there, just south of cells, arizona, there’s, a closer look at that storm. It is definitely cranking. You can see those overshooting tops and the back shear and there’s how it looks on the tucson radar heading out into the vast expanse of the desert. South of cells and ajo don’t see anything that looks like a severe signature, but the intensities are definitely quite high for arizona and it looks like the stronger reflectivity gradients, probably right there on the east side. So i would expect there to be maybe a little bit of a spectacular rain free base on the east side of that cell there’s, the tropical depression there around san antonio’s, a lot of cumuliform towers and some extensive outflow in the upper levels. You can see that that’s cut off the moisture to a certain extent out here in northeast and east texas, pretty flat and clear cumulus filled there.
However, it looks like some new towers going up there between beaumont and houston at this hour, a little bit of northerly flow affecting florida there, the usual extensive thunderstorm activity in the carolinas. We have a linear, mesoscale convective system. This is all sharing a common outflow boundary extending all the way from norfolk down to columbia, south carolina and just south of atlanta and in the northeastern u.s we’ve got the remains of elsa heading northeast along the coast of maine, some dry air advection, some cooler air Working into the back of that system, we are looking for convective development in the midwest. Already some storms going up in eastern iowa that front running about like that. Another storm up in north dakota looks like near aberdeen or huron and that’s going to be a ripe focus for development this afternoon and evening, and then we have our other area to contend with a lot of cells coming out off the rockies and the high plains. I don’t see a very extensive cumulus field across kansas and nebraska, so the moisture, probably a little bit limited, maybe some high lcls and maybe a tendency towards outflow dominant storms and all that heat in the northwest u.s has taken its toll. We’Ve got a couple of major fires, one in the susanville area, another just northeast of klamath falls and some more fire activity out near lewiston that fire there in california really going. You can see it right there, a lot of smoking, some pyrocumulus another very extensive fire burning there in southern oregon, looks like a new fire coming together right there and there’s the other hot spot in the lewiston area.
The old dixie fire looks like that is looking a lot better Music and i think that will do it for this edition of forecast lab. I thank you for watching.