National Weather Service, Arizona, Severe thunderstorm warning, Thunderstorm July 9, 2021 Phoenix, Arizona Weather Discussion

Mainly over the higher terrain, although there is a small chance, we could see some storms here in the lower deserts, but a more dramatic increase in clouds, moisture and rain chances will come in here next week and that will correspond with much lower temperatures as well. Alright we’ll talk about all of that in just a moment, but first it’s friday. So that means it’s photo friday here, where we take a look at some of the photos and or videos that you guys have submitted and first up it’s been a while, since we’ve done, this we’re going international thanks to mike and zane for sending in these pictures From brisbane australia and yes it’s winter down there, but it sure doesn’t look all that cold in these pictures does it naturally, of course, brisbane is on the gold coast. Temperatures are fairly moderate there, but that is a very scenic view, i’m kind of jealous, and then we have some pictures from ryan seek. Most of these were taken just south of the valley. There is one here from picacho peak as well, and this was from last saturday he tried to catch some of the storm action that we saw and if you were in the west valley, you definitely got plenty of showers and thunderstorms. Some spots saw over an inch of rain, but just to the south of the valley near maricopa, on the i8, not much rain to be had unfortunately, and ryan also has some time lapse.

Video for us to take a look at here and i know he’s a little bit disappointed because he didn’t get the vivid, lightning or the prolific dust, storms or hail or heavy rain, as we all are. Whenever we don’t see that during the monsoon but it’s going to come sooner or later, especially down there south of the valley that’s a fairly common area for strong storms as we go through the monsoon and plenty of opportunities for that next week. And if you want to get in on photo friday, you can email me graph, show, that is g r, o f, f show for photo friday, and i just realized we’ve been doing photo friday now for a year here on the weather. Videos. Time really flies: okay, as we take a look at the climate stats from yesterday 112 degrees. The afternoon high 92 was the very warm morning low, although not a record warm morning low, that was 95 degrees set in 2017, the normal high 107, the normal low 84., and, as we take a peek outside here at a minute, past 8 a.m. We’Ve got mostly sunny sky and we’re sitting at 95 degrees in sky harbor, but the dew point way up at 65, so it’s uncomfortable relative, humidity, 37. The winds are light and the barometer is steady temperatures right now. Yes, it is already pretty warm out there, mostly upper 80s to middle 90s through much of the metro, but that only tells you half the story.

It again feels very humid out there with dew points well up in the 60s to around 70. down there in chandler dew point of 71 yikes, the upper air. Look this morning the big features on the board there’s tropical storm elsa over the northeast. That is rapidly moving out. We’Ve got a disturbance along the texas coast once again, heavy rain down there, and our intense upper ridge remains here over the southwestern united states upper heights, around 597 decameters, and so the net result of that is very hot. Temperatures with only isolated thunderstorms to provide any relief here’s. The watch warning map still have a number of flash flood watches and warnings for the northeast in association with elsa tropical storm warnings, in effect there as well some flood, watches and advisories for texas and out here in the west, it’s all about the heat. Excessive heat warnings extend from arizona north and westward to the intermountain region, the great basin, the valleys of california, up into the pacific northwest for phoenix, specifically our excessive heat warnings, in effect from 10 a.m. This morning, through 8 p.m, saturday, and then, after that, we will start to see a moderating of temperatures. The convective outlook for today, an enhanced risk of severe storms over parts of iowa, missouri and illinois, including st louis and here’s. Another update on elsa top winds are at 50 miles per hour again. This system crossing over long island racing off to the northeast it’ll be over the coast of maine by this afternoon and up into the canadian maritimes tonight and by tomorrow, and over the weekend, it will be very quickly ejecting out into the north atlantic, all right here’s.

The precipitation now look, this is valid through next friday morning from the wpc rate amounts in phoenix generally under a tenth of an inch could see, amounts closing in on an inch in a few spots across the rim, country, the eastern mountains and southeastern portions of the State but as i say every single day – and we always get new viewers – so forgive me for repeating myself, but your amount will vary as it usually does during the monsoon. Speaking of the monsoon and everything associated with that let’s talk about what’s, going on in more detail as we get to modeling. Here we go. This is the gfs. The 06z run valid at 2 o’clock this afternoon, there’s our 597 heat dome out here across the west. An easterly flow aloft that’s the good news, but the ridge is so intense that shower and thunderstorm activity will be somewhat stifled today. So down at the surface sunny this morning, some clouds by this afternoon, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, will develop over the mountains and a few of those will try to make it into the lower deserts. But i just think the mid levels of the atmosphere are too warm and stable to support convection around phoenix this afternoon. If we see any storms at all, they might not be till later tonight, or maybe in the very early hours tomorrow highs this afternoon 109 to 112 and with that humidity, still fairly high dew points around 60 it’s just going to feel oppressive.

So try to stay indoors drink plenty of water. If you have to be out in this – and you know the deal by now – all right tonight – partly cloudy sky, slight chance of a shower or storm coming in in the late evening or overnight hours. A few of those storms could come in here by that point, evidence of maybe a disturbance across northern mexico. We could see one of these little mcv’s come up here into southern arizona tonight, but just a small chance of catching the storm and overnight lows will be very warm with the humidity levels, elevated and the potential of clouds coming in generally in the mid 80s to Lower 90s and then tomorrow, mostly sunny and hot, once again, only an isolated, shower or thunderstorm possible by the late evening and highs 111 to 114.. Now, as we go to sunday, we’ll start to see the ridge going into a weakening phase here, but it’s still going to be very hot highs, 109 to 112 and mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky by the afternoon and widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Over the higher terrain and a few storms we’ll get into the lower deserts. On monday, we start to see the weather pattern begin to change here. The ridge will continue to sit just to the north of us. It will be weakening an easterly flow continues and that disturbance that we’ve been seeing over texas, that inverted trough that will be making its way through northern mexico plenty of monsoon moisture gradually making its way into northwest mexico and southern and eastern arizona by that time.

So scattered showers and thunderstorms over the mountains, widely scattered storms getting into the lower deserts. Monday afternoon monday evening, high temperatures fall back to around 105 to 109 that’s, pretty close to where we should be for this time of year, but the downtrend and temperatures will continue on tuesday highs 101 to 105, with deeper monsoon moisture coming in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Most numerous in the afternoon and nighttime hours and then on wednesday and thursday, just a broad brush forecast here. We’Ll have these periodic disturbances hard to time features plenty of moisture around, partly to mostly cloudy sky, warm and muggy, and high temperatures upper 90s to about 102. With a 40 chance of showers and storms each day, of course, they will be most numerous in the afternoon and evening hours, but they could happen really just about any time and just about anywhere all right, here’s a week from today. This is friday, the 16th of july, the gfs depicts a weakness in the ridge. This inverted trough still over the southwest and that would leave us rather unsettled with scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms and temperatures remaining below average. Then, as we go out 10 days, this is sunday the 18th of july high pressure near the four corners monsoon ridge so scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms continue. High temperatures might warm up a couple of degrees, but humidity levels will remain elevated, as will those rain chances let’s check out rainfall for phoenix.

This runs out through the 24th of july, coming off at the gfs ensemble, and the ensemble mean is up here around an inch control. Member is near an inch and a third and you’ve got some individual members that are pushing over two inches of rain. I don’t know about that, but the clear message from the models here is that we will see more active weather next week and cooler temperatures as well and speaking of those temperatures checking that out off of the european ensemble. Yes, it’s going to be hot this weekend, it’s got us at 1 12. Tomorrow we could very well be warmer than that. Then look at that next week there may be a day or two where we don’t even break the century mark that could happen. If we do in fact get that more robust moisture in here and better rain chances, we’ll just have to see and that’s going to do it for the phoenix arizona weather discussion for today. My next video will be back here on wednesday morning of next week. That’S, the 14th of july, taking a couple of days off haven’t, had any vacations since 2019 really been that long wow. So i would, if i had a working laptop still do the weather updates for you, even while i am on vacation, but i don’t it is in the budget, but not for a while graph show. Gmail.Com is my paypal address if you want to contribute to the laptop fun, so i can still work even while on vacation, because that’s just the kind of guy i am in any event, your comments, questions and suggestions are always encouraged as well, and if you enjoy These videos be sure to subscribe, like share and click that notification bell, so that whenever we do post a brand new video, you will get notified.

I thank you so very much for watching. It is greatly appreciated. You guys be safe, stay cool and hydrated out there. It’S going to be extra hot this weekend have yourselves a great friday. A wonderful weekend and i’ll see you back here on wednesday, Music, Music.

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