Looking at the long term to see a potential major hurricane forming as well, if you like detailed weather breakdowns, hit the subscribe button and notification bell to get all my upcoming videos so here’s the latest satellite image of post tropical storm elsa, now it’s now moving past Cape cod and racing towards the northeast at 31 miles per hour and it’s got maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour. It is no longer a tropical storm but post tropical cyclone elsa as it’s, going into an extra tropical phase and losing its uh tropical nature and it’s going to continue moving in this direction throughout the rest of this weekend and bring some gusty winds and downpours to Not only the new england states but into uh the to canada and the north atlantic as well and here’s the key messages from the national hurricane center as of their last advisory for tropical storm elsa, so looking elsewhere in the atlantic, all is pretty much quiet. We see this cold front associated with elsa coming off the east coast of the united states, where we see some thunderstorm convection, then we see if we look over towards uh texas, we see what’s left of actually the remnants of invest 95 l, which was actually ahead Of elsa that’s moving into texas yesterday, the national hurricane center issued a zero percent chance of any tropical development, because this is going to continue moving westward into texas over land. So no development is expected, but is going to be bringing a lot of downpours and tropical rains to the texas gulf coast.
Then we see a weak tropical wave coming off the coast of africa and then the rest of it’s, just dominated by that bermuda, azores, high and a lot of dry air in place with saharan dust in the main development region and the caribbean. So if we look out on the gfs model, the entire run of 384 hours, which uh you can see that we’re not going to really see much development in the atlantic uh for the next about 10 days to two weeks and unless we have a storm, come Off the coat the east coast, the united states and as associated with a cold front and develops tropical nature right now, we’re looking at a quiet period, so let’s bring our attention over to pacific ocean and we, if we look down near the central american gyra, we Were looking at this as a potential area of formation in the southern caribbean, but it looks more that this central american gyre is going to actually form a system in the eastern pacific. Instead and then we also have a couple of tropical waves to the west of there that we’re monitoring as well. So if we look at the five day, graphical tropical weather outlook from the national hurricane center, we see two areas of interest: one near central america and one south of baja california, that first one tropical disturbance 1 has a 20 chance of forming over the next 5 Days and tropical disturbance 2 near the central american gyra has a 30 chance of forming in the next 5 days.
Both tropical disturbances are in favorable, warm sea, surface temperatures, environments, so they’ll have a lot of energy to siphon off the top of the ocean to create thunderstorm, convection and start to rotate and potentially develop into tropical cyclones. Now the the one closer to the south american gyra currently has better wind conditions in terms of wind shear, whereas the tropical disturbance one is actually encountering some uh easterly winds, so that’s keeping that from organizing just at the moment, but both have good moisture associated with Them but those conditions will change by the time we get to five days from now on wednesday july 14th, you’ll see both will have upper level ridges forming overhead, so that will be decreasing the wind shear and even tropical disturbance, 2 near central america. That will be even better organized so that’s one that we think could become the better chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. Hence the national hurricane center is giving it a 30 chance versus tropical disturbance 1, which has a 20 chance. So if we look at the european model on the left and the gfs model on the right, we see it highlighted in our pink hexagon. That is our disturbance. Tropical disturbance, 1 and our black hexagon is tropical disturbance, 2 near central america, so we’ll. This is as of today on friday july. 9Th we’ll move this forward to two days from now, and we see that we don’t have much development yet there’s, some cyclonic vorticity and the changing of the winds near the surface.
But nothing in terms of development with either system on either the european or the gfs model. But i want to note in our green hexagon there is another tropical wave ahead of tropical disturbance, one that the european is uh indicating we could see a low pressure center form near the surface, but the national hurricane center isn’t pointing that out just yet plus it Is going to be moving into cooler waters so the chance that this may not develop and sure enough by the time we get to day five on july 14th, we see that disturbance in green really petering out and seeing a broad low pressure center, not really developing, But we do see the organization of both tropical disturbance, one and two uh trying to form on both the european and the gfs models. So it doesn’t look like in the next five days. We’Ll see a tropical system form, but maybe after day five we will and if we look at the gfs model, we see that disturbance, one peters out, but disturbance two could ramp up uh in those warmer waters and that very well defined upper level. Ridge, overhead, with the low wind shear, can drop its low pressure according to this model, run of the gfs down to a 946 millibar low pressure center 10 days from now and could be a major hurricane in the pacific ocean. So the european model is suggesting right now that we could see tropical depression and next uh three days up to a 70 chance of happening with no tropical storms forming and over the next two to five days, we have a 80 percent chance of seeing a tropical Depression form from disturbance, one or two and then a 10 to 20 percent chance of seeing disturbance, one becoming a tropical storm in the next two to five days and if both were to develop the next names on the list in the eastern pacific would be felicia And guillermo, thank you for watching this video.
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