Will they be around for the rush hour we’ll talk about that as well as the rest of the week and the weekend, and take a look at rain chances out to that point. All right. First of all, the almanac from yesterday 109 degrees. The afternoon high 86 was the morning low, the normal high 107, the normal low 85 and no rain in the bucket officially at sky harbor. Yesterday, looking outside right now here at 405 a.m, scattered clouds around and there is some lightning way off to the north we’re sitting at 93 degrees at sky, harbor, dew point at 61, relative humidity, 34 percent. The winds are light and the barometer is steady. Temperatures across the area right now, we are mostly in the upper 80s and low 90s, although there’s an 81 way up there in north scottsdale and checking the radar right now. Two main clusters of showers and storms ongoing one over eastern arizona, and then there is one there up across yavapai county beginning to move into far northern maricopa county and that is producing some heavy rain. Some flooding around there, as well as some gusty winds and small hail, and that will be a concern as well, but the primary interest is in the heavy rain potential the upper air look this morning the features of note for us. We have a disturbance across west texas, new mexico, northern mexico and an area of high pressure that is weakening as it drifts southward into southern california.
The flow aloft across the state is now switching more out of the northwest and that will serve to temporarily dry us out over the next couple of days. Although rain chances won’t be completely out of the forecast as surface moisture will still be around here’s. The watch warning map, of course the heat continues up across the northwestern states. I was in boise, idaho, the last few days with the one and only michelle, and it was hot. In fact, it was almost as hot there as it was here, although it was considerably drier and there was a lot more smoke thanks to those wildfires. But for us we have a flash flood watch. In effect, that includes much of the state, including mojave, la paz, yavapai maricopa, pima, pinal, gila, santa cruz counties. This is until 11 a.m this morning and then, after that, we should start to quiet down the convective outlook for today, an enhanced risk of severe storms across parts of iowa, minnesota and wisconsin here in arizona we’re in the green, scattered thunderstorms possible and, of course, while No organized severe weather is anticipated. Any one storm can become severe during the monsoon and here’s the precipitation outlook. This is valid through next wednesday morning from the wpc rain amounts in phoenix between one quarter and one half inch, and we could see totals around one and a half to two and a half inches for the high country over into the white mountains and three to Four inch amounts for the southern border of our state and into portions of southeast arizona, so active weather will be around, especially as we get toward the latter part of the forecast period.
Let’S talk about that now, as we go to the models. First, let’s. Take a look at the hr: this is at 6 00 a.m. This morning you can see those clusters of showers and storms across northwest maricopa and yavapai county will move southeastward through the metro, and so we will see scattered showers and storms. Not everybody is going to get wet, but those of you that do could see some locally heavy rain and some flooding as well. So just in time for the rush hour that’s going to make for a hectic commute around here and then by 10 a.m. We start to clear up and dry out so let’s go to the global models here see what’s going on this is the gfs. The 06z run valid at 2 o’clock today weak high pressure across southern california, more of a northwesterly flow developing here today, so again down to the surface, scattered showers and thunderstorms around this morning with locally heavy rain possible, then widely scattered showers and storms will develop this Afternoon, up across the rim and indications of maybe a few storms over southern nevada or northwest arizona, and we will watch those for later tonight – highs this afternoon generally between about 101 to 105. tonight, an isolated shower or storm in the evening. But again, maybe another round of late night showers and storms try to get into the lower deserts, say after midnight, so we’ll keep at least a 30 chance of rain in the forecast then, and overnight lows mainly in the 80s and then tomorrow.
Maybe a few showers and storms again in the morning, otherwise, partly cloudy high temperatures 103 to 107., as we go to friday, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over the mountains. A couple of those make their way into the lower deserts. The chance of rain certainly isn’t zero, but it will be diminished somewhat and again. High temperatures, a couple of degrees, either side of 105.. Now, as we get to the weekend, our ridge is going to start to rebuild and shift back to the north and east establishing over the rockies and the interior west. So the flow starts to turn back out of the east. Moisture will be on the increase so the weekend, a pretty broad brushed forecast here, with partly cloudy sky each day, scattered showers and thunderstorms over the mountains about a 30 percent chance we’ll see storms in here for both saturday and sunday and high temperatures should trend down A little bit with the increase in moisture once again, so maybe staying just a degree or three shy of average let’s go to next week and again, an active monsoon forecast looks to be likely here with our ridge remaining north of us and these disturbances rotating around The periphery of the ridge into arizona, of course, they are hard to time features, but the gfs is showing a very pronounced inverted trough or upper low developing across texas once again and drifting. Our way, giving us a unsettled picture here, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms for both monday and tuesday, so we’ll bump that rain chance up to 40 percent and mention the threat of locally heavy rain.
Once again and high temperatures will trend back down to the upper 90s to around 104, but of course, the trade off in the summer when the temperatures go down, the humidity goes up here’s a week from today. This is wednesday, the 21st kind of an interesting solution. Here depicted by the gfs we’ve got a ridge across wyoming and south dakota, a deep easterly flow and a massive inverted trough over much of the greater southwest. I would say this is a rather aggressive or bullish solution – i’m, not so sure about it, but should it happen to verify we would see numerous showers and thunderstorms across arizona, some of those producing some locally heavy rain temperatures well below average, and this would be just What the doctor ordered for a state that is in desperate need of rainfall michelle and i drove past lake powell on our way back from boise, idaho and uh. The lake is at an all time, low i’ve, never seen it that low. So that was something else. Something to behold, so we really could use the rain here and then, as we go out 10 days. This is friday, the 23rd and now the gfs shows the ridge repositioning across the midwest stretching down toward the gulf coast that trough beginning to lift out across the western plains and another weak trough along the pacific northwest coast more of a southwesterly flow in here. So we may dry out again if this verifies, but it’s ten days out so we’ll just have to see all right, let’s look at rainfall uh for the next couple of weeks.
This is coming off of the gfs ensemble and you talk about bullish. Uh the ensemble mean is over an inch and a half. Here you got some members that are pushing up toward two and three inches, but then, as we look at the european, not quite as much but still rather promising here, the ensemble mean is up around 1.2 inches. So active weather is expected in here, especially by late. In the weekend and next week, with another round of locally heavy rain possible, if model trends indeed verify and as we look at temperatures off the european ensemble – and you want to talk about optimistic uh, yeah, we’re, still pretty close to or slightly below average. For the rest of the week this weekend and early next week, but then it’s got high temperatures under 100 degrees for six consecutive days and to say the least, that would be unusual. But what we’re going to take from this is that an increase in moisture and rain chances will certainly drive temperatures down to below average levels and that’s. What we like to see that’s going to do it for the phoenix arizona weather discussion for today. My next video back here tomorrow morning, updates before that, if necessary, if you enjoy these videos, be sure to subscribe, like share and click that notification bell, so that whenever a brand new video is posted, you’ll get the notice your comments, questions and suggestions are always encouraged. As well, i will try to get to all of those that you left in my absence and as always, thank you so much for watching really do appreciate it.
Everyone be safe, stay, cool and hydrated out. There enjoy the rain.