My name is Jewel, and this is the weather channel of j7409 over at the national hurricane center five day outlook, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next five days, that’s a good thing. What might come up after those five days, let’s check it out now. This is nine days from now: okay, we could have a low start developed off the coast of north and south carolina when it pops up let’s see what the wind gusts are in it right here, 52 miles per hour. How about the sustained winds sustained winds and this little fella here 36 – not quite tropical storm, but not too far from it. We’Ll go back to the gusts, simply because you can see it better as we move up a little bit on the same day. Here you can see it moving up. It is a low pressure system. Now, what are the wind gusts in it 52 miles per hour? How about sustained winds? They still look like they’re, probably not quite enough, keeps moving up a little bit 36 miles per hour as we move up a little bit more on the same day, the barometric pressure you can see is 29.8 in it. Let’S move up a little bit more and it’s right off the coast. Let’S hope it keeps going on now. This is sustained winds. Sustained winds 37, probably around in here. It is a tropical storm yep there. It is ‘ miles per hour with a barometric pressure of 29.
77. How about the wind gusts, wind gusts in this thing or 58 miles per hour, so we’re going to keep our eyes on this let’s hope it does form off the coast if it forms and moves on away from everybody a little bit of wind gust over for The outer banks, nothing that we can’t handle and then the pamlico sound the rivers up in these areas. What about rain? Does it have a lot of rain with it? Well, it has some pretty good rain showers in it that’s for sure, but nothing yeah, 1.66 inches right in these areas here so we’re going to keep our eyes on it, see if it develops or not. It has a very good chance right now of developing. So far as everything else goes for the systems coming off of africa and all of the other systems up in here right now, looking like they’re going to be mixed in with a lot of dry air at this time. So right now nothing going on with them. I’M, going to keep my eyes on all of this, and i will keep you posted severe weather today. Thunderstorms and wind damage is going to be possible in parts of the northeast marginally severe storms with hail and strong. Gusty winds are possible in parts of the central and northern plains, as you can see now what about tornadoes today, i’ve done a little investigating i’ve done my homework, two percent chance in pennsylvania from mid to northern new jersey and down in western northwestern parts of new York let’s check a few things out right, quick.
This is over at the significant tornado parameters where they may occur, and this is a round 9 a.m. Tonight you can see up in these areas. We do have some when we go up to around 10 a.m. Looking a little bit stronger in pennsylvania here, not saying this is going to happen. This gives you a good outlook of that. It could so let’s do a quick sounding. Yes, it could be a tornado in this area. So please be aware and stay safe. These things could pop up anytime also over in these areas. You have a chance. This is still around 10 a.m. You still have a chance of some tornadoes coming through. We will pop it up to around 11 tonight, still significant, very significant up in this area. Here. What is it looking like? Looking like around midnight, it should diminish some, but still these areas let’s check one more out right, quick see what this is looking like for you, a possible tornado, could still pop up with these cells. So please be aware of this. If you’re in pennsylvania, mid to northern new jersey and western new york, excuse me southwestern new york, i should say: if you’re in any of these areas, you do have the chance of some of these cells that could produce a tornado. So far as the severe downdraft winds in the very same areas, i just showed you on where these tornadoes could possibly turn up mid to northern new jersey.
Also, a large portion from mid to eastern new york. I mean pennsylvania. Excuse me folks, pennsylvania moving up into new york in this area. Here you can see you do have this 15 chance now, where it’s five percent chance of gusting winds. The winds with these downdraft winds, i’ve told you many times. I’Ll tell you again. If you get one of these microbuffs downdraft winds, it can cause just as much damage as a tornado. It just don’t last but a few seconds and it doesn’t move very far. What about hail? Looking like most of the hill is going to be a chance of 5, north and south dakota portions of nebraska portions of colorado and portions of eastern montana and colorado. Here we have the namm map. This will take us through the next two and a half to three days, courtesy of tropical tidbits we’re, going to turn it on, let it roll. I do want you folks to know. We do have a chance of maybe some flooding now it’s, all because of a slow moving cold front and this cold front is moving slow, slow, slow. It is continuing to me and or eastward between the lower great lakes and the southern plains for the early part of today and it’s, going to produce showers and thunderstorms scattered around now as it reaches the northeast. Today, it is expected to run into a very warm and humid air mass. This is why we have this severe weather that could spark up now much of the northeast has experienced waterlogged first half of july, leaving many low lying areas extremely susceptible to flash flash flooding.
No joke my friends. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing one to three inches of rain with locally higher amounts across areas that have seen triple their normal rainfall falls so far this month. Now this chance of excessive rainfall is high and excessive rainfall warnings have been issued for portions of southern new england and the northeast, where the combination of wet soil and heavy rain is most likely to cause flash flooding. We also have a few storms that may turn severe between western connecticut and northeast maryland, and these folks in these areas, you can get some damaging winds and isolated tornadoes possible. Just as i’ve showed you now. For the most part, the heavy rain thread is expected to come to an end sunday for the northeast, as the system finally gets to the coastline. Isolated downpours of flash flooding are expected to remain possible further south across southeast lower, mississippi valley and southern plains. Through the end of the weekend, now we got a building upper level. Ridge i’ve always told you never trust these upper level. Ridges well, we’ve got one building over the western u.s and it’s going to leave temperatures soaring well above average, across the northern plains and northern great basin for the next few days. I’M. Sorry folks highs in the triple digits. Well, you can expect them throughout eastern montana, and lower elevations of the intermountain west. The excessive heat warnings and watches and heat advisories are all up. Meanwhile, high temperatures in the low to mid 90s are forecast throughout the northern plains and into parts of northern and central minnesota.
This heat wave will excavate the severe to exceptional drought currently found across this region, which, in combination, can make for an environment right for wildfires to spread uncontrollably. Speaking of wildfires dry lightning could be a concern for parts of northern and central california coming up sunday. As this monsoonal moisture enters from the south, but produces very little rain now, if thunderstorms do form, extremely dry, fuel struck by lightning could produce new fires, and i hate to tell you that we’ve got too many fires going on as it is, but the fire watches For these areas are already posted and that’s a check of your weather today, thanks so much for watching my friends, thank you for everything you do for me. I love you and i appreciate it very much if you’re into the weather, all kinds of weather, doesn’t matter, what kind of something significant is coming your way, i’m going to get it up for you. Please subscribe if you haven’t click the j7 409 weather insignia in the bottom right hand, corner click that bell and check off all to ensure you get all my latest weather videos.