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That probably do need to see it because a lot of areas in the northeast of highly populated areas, a lot of metropolitan areas, are going to be affected by storms tomorrow. So let’s get started with this video here and, as you can see, the severe weather is going to be covering a big part of the mid atlantic and northeast right. So this is tomorrow, you can see there’s a marginal threat from just about boston, just south of boston down in new york city, philadelphia, washington, baltimore and even spreading inland places like mount pocono state college down, richmond virginia charleston west virginia just named a few places here, Including the capital district of albany worcester, mass hartford connecticut, all right, so all you guys are under the gun for severe weather and of course, there is a threat. Um back towards northern plains, we’re gon na be focusing specifically on the northeast and northern mid atlantic. For today and looking at the flash flooding threat, there is a marginal threat that extends from the northeast all the way back to the central plains of southern plains and parts of the deep south and, of course, through the monsoon season. Arizona, new mexico and colorado as well, but in the yellow and red, is where you really got to worry all right. So this basically goes for central new jersey, very northern corner of maryland and delaware, um that includes philly and new york city in new york city.
It’S kind of like in that moderate zone, which is even worse because these areas just got hit by elsa, we don’t, need any more rain. Um boston is definitely in the slight risk. Worcester, mass and albany and binghamton are in the moderate risk so as well as newark new jersey, all right, even northeastern part of pennsylvania as well parts like near scranton under that moderate threat, so meaning more a better chance of excessive rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance. Obviously, those higher chances in those yellow and uh red colors, all right so let’s go and move on to some models. We’Re, looking at two mods today, uh obviously i’m not going to look at any global models because they’re more for mid the long range uh, we’re gon na be looking at the name three km and the high. The high resolution model here. So we’re fast forwarded already to tomorrow. This is about noon time, we’re starting off with here, as you can see, here’s the low pressure, the surface low, here’s, the front here’s your cold front and here’s kind of like your warm front, all right. So your warm front is sort of right here and your cold front is here. So these are going to be progressing to the north and east as we head through the day tomorrow and, of course, we’re going to have a southerly flow in terms of the surface. We’Re going to suddenly flow right in this warm sector.
Here we have a more northwesterly flow right behind um that cold front here right and the waterfront, obviously where the colliding areas that’s, where we have most of our precipitation for the meantime that’s until we get towards the afternoon. So this is four hours later. This is four o’clock p.m, and you can see all these little super cells and there’s the severe weather that we see pop up here, all right across the mid atlantic and northeast again. This is not exactly where they’re going to be. I would take this as more of a more of a guidance to see like where they could be and where errors could be in line and notice the surface low right 10. 12. By by in like four hours later, the surface pressure fell to 1009, so the lowest strength thing and in part of four o’clock being the better part of the day in terms of heating. That strengthening surface flow only means more energy, in addition, is getting feeding into the storms of what they already have all right and then 1009 in the low even strengthens more as it moves eastward 10 or 7. So now, at this point we see more precipitation um near the low center and, of course, now look at the complexes. They start to become a little bit more, a little bit more widespread they’re, not just cells, anymore, um, they’re kind of little mesoscale complexes. Potentially that are moving through as well, so i definitely should be on the lookout for that all right, and then we see the gust front, move here’s your cold front, here’s sort of where your warm front is left of it.
This gust front moves to the mid atlantic, so you’re gon na kind of have your cells out ahead of it. Then the main cold front will push through that’s, where we see some severe weather. Sometimes storms bubble up out ahead of the front. Then the front pushes through and that damage and wind that will probably be at its highest at that point um and then all the precipitation makes its way up into the northeast behind the low it gets a little cooler. Obviously, you can’t really tell um just by looking at the red lines, because it’s summer time there’s pretty much always going to be red lines there, because uh probably no chance of snow. I could pretty much say that with a guaranteed fact, i’m. Looking at the dew points for tomorrow, 77.78 in some spots, ice and down in the delmarva region, so dew points are going to be through the roof anywhere in lavender. Dew point is higher than 70 degrees, so, basically anywhere pretty much anywhere in that black zone. You guys are going to have dew points, probably higher than uh 70 degrees that’s, a big chunk all right and even upper 60s is just as muggy or well, not really, but muggy enough to support um, some heavy rainfall and those thunderstorms, so boston, dew point: this Is only by noon by the way 65 for boston 75 for new york, 76, even 75 ish for philly uh, 76 for baltimore and 72 for washington dc, as we have towards the afternoon all right um some places the dew point will get higher.
Look at southern pennsylvania 79 for a dew point, though, if you caught, if you caught that reading, i just did 79 right there there. It is again 78.79, so that is extremely muggy that that’s like air. You can wear to another level, all right, so very, very high uh humidities here and gradually. These are going to be on the on the decrease, as the storms move through right watch as the storms move through and once the gust front moves through overnight. Look dew points are already crashing a little bit, not very much, but then once the front clears through for good. Ah, there you go sunday, dew points fall into the 60s it’s a bit more comfortable, even 50s, in northern pennsylvania, and by monday we might even see some 50s uh continue to spread out more and more and we’re going to look at what the high resolution model Says to that later on, so mixed slayer cape, a lot of the energy will be down around the delmarva, including philadelphia, new jersey, even part through new york city. So we’re gon na have a lot of that. Cape energy that’s gon na spread north as we have through the day and then, as our front spreads through out ahead of that front. There you go more of the energy is confined towards delmarva, which is why i believe that maybe more of the action up here, because there will be some action near the surface low, around new york and maybe even southern vermont, maybe more of a rain threat up There then severe weather but still cannot rule out any uh gusty winds there and maybe some small hail, although hail, probably gon na be wind and rain.
Um hail not as big of a threat here and then the cape will start to wear down as the storms pass through uh. Here we have the sheer now. The sheer is the only thing that maybe it sparks a little bit of good news, because i don’t think this storm’s gon na be able to last long and i’m not saying flash flooding is not gon na, be an issue if a storm only lasts for, like 30 minutes and you get like five inch, an hour rainfall rate that’s still two and a half inches of rain it’s, going to cause a lot of flooding. But aside from that, a lot of the wind shear will be near the surface low, which is going to be up in probably the farther interior northeast near like where that warm front is because notice right towards the afternoon now now the namm model, if you did Miss it i’ll go back, but if you did miss it around hour 29 you can see a little gust front or like a little area of storms. I was moving from north to south here on the pennsylvania new jersey border right there. So if you guys watch that closely watch as it moves from the north from northern new jersey down south see how it pushes itself south well let’s, look at that again on the windshear map, and you can see right here. It is at hour 28 there. It is at hour 29.
It continues to move south, so a little bit of increased shear in that area. So that could keep this from lasting a little bit longer. But in the region in general, not as much here most of the shear and wire stones will be lasting, a little bit longer, we’ll be probably up in new york all right now there is still going to be some turning of the winds with heights, so i’ll Also talk about that probably your best chance when the gust front comes through. You can see an increase in sheer but other than that sheer not too high, which is obviously why the health threat is also pretty low, if not minimal um. Here we have the supercell composite, so we can see the chance of supercells um again, probably around the four o’clock hour ish and it’s, probably going to be in pennsylvania. New york cannot rule anything out, though, on your delmarva either, just because you’re, not in the shaded region, and you still could be in the shaded region. Right as we head towards a very later part of the day. Uh there still could be a chance of some supercells and again that means the chance of supercell’s. Given the environment, that doesn’t mean supercells won’t form, if you’re not in that shaded region. Just keep that in mind as well right here we have the significant tornado parameter. Uh chances of tornadoes um now again, tornado threat is pretty low in general, but the threat will probably be where we see a higher shear closer to that surface low a bit bit more energy provided by the low, as opposed to more heat energy will be down To the south, but this energy associated with the low will be farther north um into more of the uh northern pennsylvania, southern new york kind of coastal northeast area um.
So that’s, probably we could see a little bit of tornadoes. A couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out, but i think um most likely wind didn’t rain, with a very slight chance of hail um. A couple of these could probably be severe worn storms at times, but again, severe criteria is 58 mile. An hour winds. One inch of hail and or a tornado, so even if a storm is not severe, 40, 50 or 55 mile an hour. Winds does not meet severe criteria, that’s still very strong winds and, if it’s, a big complex of storms, those 40 50 55 mile an hour winds which is equivalent to tropical storm force, even though they don’t meet the level for severe criteria. That’S still some very damaging wind, so keep that in mind um now, looking at the wind crossovers, this is that new. Now this is more for getting. You know hail tornadoes and such i’m turning the winds with height is more associated with tornadoes, so you can see the red lines, particularly across the mid atlantic region, here notice how the red line it’s, like your surface wind, coming out of the south, then with that Front that’s coming through, even though the front still back here, we still have wind coming, maybe from the southwest direction. I’Ll paint a little bit better like this, so let’s turn to the winds with height could mean that we could see some um rotation and maybe some tornadoes, but look what happens here right as the front starts to get a lot closer now, we’re talking about the Front pretty much being right here at this point, so look how the winds are coming out of the south, even south east, at this point right, so i’ll even paint it from this direction.
And now the wind is gon na become even more from the west. Because of the front getting closer, so any rotation will probably the best chance anyway, will probably be when the front gets closer right and, as you can see right, you can tell where the kind of where the front is, because behind the front notice how the red And blue lines are coming out of the same direction, so i would pretty much put the front right about here. All right there could even be like a little secondary front. This could actually be another front too, because notice um out of head right here. We still see winds coming out the south and then crossing to the southwest, so the front could still be ahead right there, but then the front pushes through you can kind of tell when the cape starts wearing out your front’s already pushed through and you’re going to Start clearing out sunday will be like a transition day. Monday will be the more you know calming day. You know. Um i mean sunday. We probably won’t see precipitation, but might be a lot less humidity. Maybe a little bit cooled down in the temperatures as well. All right, let’s, look at the updrafts updrafts are also very important, and you can see most of the updrafts again are pennsylvania and new york. Strong updrafts shown here can lead to strong downdrafts, which can lead to big gusts of wind and rain um and, of course, as our front moves through later on.
We could see those down in the delmarva and the mid atlantic as well so we’re gon na go to the high resolution model. But first let’s start by saying that there is a flash flood watch for new york. Um for northern pennsylvania, eastern pennsylvania, the northernmost county in delaware, says newcastle county and then central and northern new jersey as well. And if i go back, that also does extend um back to ohio, which is not due to tomorrow’s threat. Um. Most of this farther to the north is due to tonight’s rain and then the alerts that are further south, like for the mid atlantic region. This is going to be associated with tomorrow’s threat and, of course, that heat advisory is still laden under there. Obviously, you just can’t see it for right now so reading into the flash flood watch and we’re going to get over to the uh. The high resolution model um for the northern mid atlantic here at the philadelphia area, one to two inches are expected with isolated totals local totals up to three to five inches are possible, so very heavy rain um is in store here, um national weather service in state College slow moving front locally, every rainfall they didn’t really state any totals, except for that there is already extremely wet soils. Uh there’s, another some other flood watches here. Um, none of them really state how much rain this one coming out of national service in albany, one to three inches with locally higher amounts.
Um rainfall rates could exceed one inch per hour at times up in that region. All right – and i think that is it in terms of we have this one out of new york city – i think showers and thunderstorms expected to move the area. Uh rain will fall, of course, in the areas that already seen wet conditions with elsa potential for flash flooding, didn’t, really state specific totals of what they think so, but generally do expect to go one to two inches. If you get under a thunderstorm, possibly higher into a stronger thunderstorms, uh high resolution model, the her aka, whatever you want to call it uh pretty much the same maps except on a different model, now notice the surface uh. I start at the same time as i did the other model we’re starting at noon on saturday low is a bit weaker, 1016 millibars, so the precipitation appears to be a lot weaker as well. Keep that in mind um the low not almost not as much energy. If the low is a bit weaker, but the low could strengthen nonetheless, a couple millibars, but noticeably weaker than what the nam had by the way, but still you’re, still seeing a lot of gust front thunderstorms. A lot of supercells a lot more organized areas of thunderstorms. So, even though the high resolution model might have a slightly weaker low, they might have more heat energy i’m, going to get to those models or those maps in a little bit um.
So again, there’s your low there’s. Your fronts are going to be pushing through, and everything will clear out behind that, but a lot of heavy rain with some of these um and even like a little bit on the back side as well to finish it off so looking at, we have the mixed Layer, cape again starting at noon, and you can see that for the delmarva and the mid atlantic again that’s, where our highest cape values between 2000, even at the 3500 there near and just southwest of philly, all right that’s, eventually going to be spreading north. That suddenly flow’s going to continue to move north out ahead of our front and once the front moves through, we start to lose that heat energy, and then things will probably be tapering off but notice, even through early sunday, still a little bit of cape lingering behind It that’s just potential available energy, it doesn’t mean it’s still going to be raining or storming into early sunday all right, but as you can see, we still have a in lincoln area of summit, more higher capabilities between one and two thousand joules per kilogram, and we Could see a little resurgence in sunday all right, that’s, why i said sunday might be a transition day, but definitely by late sunday into monday. Things will start clearing out for sure those cape values really do get reduced by then all right. So, looking at the shear again like we looked at the other model, we’re gon na look at wind shear again starting at noon.
As you can see pretty much, the shear remains where the low is tracking or near where the front is as well. So the shield remains farther to the north, but of course, when those thunderstorms come through expect a little increase in sheer um there’s, a slight potential for heroin tornadoes, i can never roll a mountain or talk about severe weather like this, but probably um. On sunday. We see a little tail end of that uh that storm system again it’s a pretty slow, moving front that’s. Why i said sunday might be a transition day. Monday would probably be the better day um. If i had to pick between sunday and monday um. If we look at here the supercell composite all right, as you can see chance for supercells, as you can see, the her keeps a little further south. I was before with the name. Pretty much had them all like up here: um, maybe the the um excuse and nam had him up there. The herd might have them down here, a bit more, so maybe a bit more supercells towards the delmarva at least a better chance for them, based on the environment that these models have set up here. Uh significant tornado parameter chances for tornadoes um, not out of the question with some of these uh supercells that develop and, of course, maybe with those gust fronts, you can see some rotation we’re gon na go over that just a little bit here.
Um, then, that moves through late saturday and then sunday, we might start our clearing day and our updraft felicities. What kind of updrafts are we seeing noticeably weaker than what the name had but notice anywhere in there? If i added the general track is probably in this zone right here, so probably a bit further north, but then once the front moves through don’t be surprised, we can still see some updrafts down there towards the delmarva as well. I know it’s pretty hard to see and finally, here let’s take a look at those wing crossovers, so this is starting at noon already, southeast one at the surface, according to this model southwest wind at 5000 feet and can indicated by the blue. Oh, the black don’t necessarily pay attention to that’s, like tens of thousands of feet up, uh the red and the blue is what we want to look at here in terms of our wind crossovers, but notice that, once the front passes through completely notice, we got winds. Coming out of the west or west northwest at both sides, so it really just the wind crossovers, do a change after that, but notice how the ocean, where the front hasn’t passed through yet southwind at the surface, southwest wind 5000 feet. So just keep that in mind. As well, so thank you guys so much for watching. I am weatherdude. Thank you for watching the severe weather threat, video i’ll catch.
