My name is corey in today’s episode. We’Ll do macro level analysis on the indices and we’ll also take a look at the russell 2000. The vix and bitcoin first up let’s take a look at the s. P 500 spx index so let’s crack open this chart and see what’s going on in the stock market. Today, all right, first up, let’s, look at the s, p, 500, spx and remember this is a weekly chart, so every candlestick represents one entire week’s worth of price action, so zooming in here we can see that we did go down this week and we’re still above A positive sloping, 5 vma and on this weekly chart we still have the bull trend. So while it was a painful week and we are starting to see a pullback, as you can tell on the weekly chart, we have done no damage to the technical bullish trend. We’Re well above the 5 5vma on the price, action and we’re still well above a positive sloping, 20 simple moving average, so we did break and close above spy 4300, which does mean we could be on our way to the next price target at 44.88. Remember, in order to validate these upside price targets, we have to maintain bullish trends and we want to see the price actions staying over critical support right now. The most critical support will be down here right around 41.55, which is also where that 20 simple moving average is, as you can tell.
If we start taking out the lows around 42.80, that will mean the price action is starting to break down through some of these moving averages, and we could actually be seeing the early stages of a stock market correction. But again, we don’t want to call it top and we want to stay objective and follow the price action and the trend. So, looking at this chart, we still do have to respect the strong bullish trend and when we have a strong bullish trend, we do know that bull markets do not die easily. We’Ve seen plenty attempts at breaking this bull market before and we just continually see people buying the dip and driving the stock market higher. Eventually, that will end but again we’re not trying to call a top and we’re following the price action in the trend. We can see in the upper bollinger bands we are starting to flatten out, but we still have plenty of room in those upper bollinger bands and they go all the way up to price target to 44 41 and they will continue to expand week after week. The lower bollinger band is crossing above the 50 ema and from last week’s, close back down to our 20 simple moving. Average support is another 3.88 drop. So, while the short term pullbacks are definitely a little bit scary and a little bit volatile, as you can tell in the bigger picture, we’re not losing anything in the technical bull trend jumping over to a monthly chart, even though the month is not yet over, we Can still see price action well above the five ema, and we still have the strong bull trend.
The price targets are well within the upper bollinger band and we are still seeing a potential bull market in this summer. As long as we don’t break any of these critical supports on the bear bull survey, we can see we’re down to 36 bulls, 37 percent neutral and 26.8 bears so we don’t see overly greedy sentiment with the bullish survey. We do have the fewest amount of bears, but we definitely have a lot of people that are neutral, which does increase the probability that there’s plenty of cash on the sidelines. Remember when there’s cash on the sidelines, eventually that cash will come back into the market and it’s very hard for the stock market to correct when there’s already a lot of people in cash. So we want to get a lot more defensive when we start seeing the bullish sentiment, getting close to 50 percent and right now it’s only sitting at 36. So i don’t see any concerns in the bear bull survey jumping over to the ndx weekly chart. We can see that we did have a pullback this week and again, the price action is still above a positive sloping, 5 ema and we still have a bullish trend on the weekly chart. The ndx did hit our price target at 14 832 and we are starting to see some resistance in a pullback from that level. If we can break above this price target, the next one will be up here at 15, 272 and again, we need to start seeing a break above one price target to validate the next right now, we’re, seeing that resistance level respected and we are starting to see A little bit of a pullback from that level, the most concerning price action would be if the ndx got down below about 14 000 and, as you can tell our 20 simple moving.
Average is down here around 13 765. from this week’s close down to the 20. Simple moving average is a little bit over a six percent drop and remember it’s, always possible. We test that 20 simple moving average in a bull market, but all you need to pay attention to is that we do have the bullish trend and the price action is still above critical support. There’S no reason at this point in time looking at this chart to think that the stock market reached a peak and we’re starting to see a correction until we start at least breaking below two weeks, ago’s low, which is right around fourteen thousand five hundred and fifty Jumping over to the monthly chart, we can see the ndx still well above the five year main still in the strong bull trend, and we see plenty of room in the upper bollinger band to continue to go higher and we could go higher without seeing any resistance From those bollinger bands, so overall the weekly and monthly charts for the s p, 500 and the nasdaq 100 still have bullish trends with bullish price action. On the dow jones. We are looking at a weekly chart and we see price action above the 5vma and we do see all the moving averages stacked to the bullish trend. We’Re. Definitely looking like the dow jones is struggling to break above about 34 830, and that is a very strong resistance level, but remember the longer something goes sideways and consolidates the bigger the breakout will finally be so if we can see the dow jones breaking out of This sideways consolidation, which is a multi week, consolidation.
We could see a very powerful move to the upside. Just the same, if we break out of this consolidation to the downside, we could see a strong move to the downside. So right now you can see the dow jones has been going absolutely nowhere going all the way back to april of 2021, and even though we do have the bullish trend, the dow jones has really just been consolidating and going sideways. So, look for the dow to potentially start breaking out to new all time highs and regaining a strong bullish trend in the upward direction. Jumping over to the monthly chart of the dow. We can see the price action well over the 5 ema and we also still have that really strong bull trend with plenty of room in the upper bollinger band. So again, there’s no resistance, that’s going to come from the bollinger bands. If we do see price action start running from these levels on the russell 2000 we’re still in this very long sideways consolidation and it’s much larger than the dow jones consolidation, we could see. Price action has been going absolutely nowhere going all the way back to february of 2021 and we’ve just been going sideways in this trading range. Now we are at a very critical support which connects the bottoms going all the way back to january 2021 and that level is right around 2160.. If we break below that level, we have another support right around 2100 in the 50 ema right around 2044.
. Just remember what i said on the dow jones: these sideways consolidations are building up a lot of energy and they could fire in either direction. You can see the bollinger bands are squeezing, which tells us there’s, very little implied volatility in the russell, but that is going to change when we see a breakout. So if the russell starts breaking below support, we could see the russell 2000 going into a bear market and we could see very significant declines if the russell 2000 finds support from here. It could get a lot of upward momentum and break out to brand new. All time highs and start running, so when you see these sideways consolidations, do remember that they are going to break out in the up direction or the down direction with a severely strong move. So you need to pay attention to these critical support and resistance levels on the russell we don’t have bullish, trending anymore, and that does go hand in hand with the sideways consolidation. So if we see the russell 2000 start breaking out, we could regain that bullish trend or we could see the russell 2000 breaking down and developing a bearish trend on the monthly chart for the russell we can see. Price action is currently below the 5 ema, but again we did go very far very fast and the russell 2000 is just consolidating those gains. So i don’t see any concern with the bullish trend and the price action really just looks like it’s cooling off and is correcting through time.
Instead of through a drastic decline in price on the vix weekly chart, we could definitely see a little bit of spike in volatility this week. But as you could tell from the negative sloping 50 ema and the bearish trend on the weekly chart, the vix has definitely been trending down over the last few months. We see the vix spiking a little bit over 18.2, but we need to see the vix getting above 20 to really see a stock market correction. So while that could be coming in the near future, we don’t yet see that fear in the market and without that fear, we’re not likely going to see a stock market correction we’re just simply seeing a stock market pullback, which is anywhere between one and a half To three percent there’s a lot of sectors suffering a lot more but, as you can tell from the broad indices, we don’t yet see enough of a pullback to call it a correction on the bitcoin weekly chart. We could see the price action below the weekly 50 ema and we’re still above that critical support at 30, 000. there’s, no way you can look at this weekly chart and see a bullish trend and that’s. Why bitcoin has really just been going nowhere it’s consolidating around the 50 ema and it’s, holding above critical support at 30 000, and we really need to see that critical support breaking down to the downside to see a downward flush in bitcoin.
But right now, there’s. Just not enough selling volume to drive bitcoin much lower, so this could be an accumulation phase where big money is accumulating bitcoin at lower prices. While everybody is bored and sick of it going nowhere and eventually we will see retail capitulation in bitcoin and we could regain a bull market. But right now you need to watch 30 000 as support and below that it could come back down to 27, 000 or possibly even all the way back down to 20 000, but watch that critical support, because if it doesn’t break down there’s no reason to believe Bitcoin is going much lower, you could tell there’s no bullish trend and there’s no bearish trend and all of the downward momentum is pretty much getting dried up around this 30 thousand dollar support range, so this is a bullish accumulation at a strong support level. The way i see it and we could see bitcoin regaining a bullish rally going into the rest of the year from these levels if they do not break down on the monthly chart of bitcoin. We can still see that we do have that bull trend and the price action is hanging around that 13 ema. We have plenty of room in the upper bollinger band and the lower bollinger band to see a lot more volatility, but again as long as we’re. Above that critical support, i don’t see anything severely wrong with bitcoin and it could be a great buy at these levels if it is going to break out to brand new all time highs.
So jumping back over to s p 500. You can see that we’ve been in this bullish trend in this bull market, going all the way back to about august of 2020.. Once all these moving averages get stacked to the bull side. That means there’s a lot of bullish momentum which pushes the price higher. We could definitely see volatility which you’ve seen plenty of times throughout the last couple of years, but as long as we have this bullish trend and you’re. Looking at this at a macro level view we have to remember that we’re in a bull market and prices make higher highs and higher lows in bull markets. So right now we are dealing with a pullback, but we are still in a bull market. So we need to look at this as a buying opportunity at critical support if we see critical support breaking down and we start losing the bullish trend, especially on the daily chart, that will be an early warning that we could be going into a stock market correction. But remember corrections eventually regain the bullish trend and they do start breaking out yet again to new all time highs, so make sure you’re thinking about things longer term than just a few days. Price action, especially if you’re, an investor or a long term swing trader. As long as we have this bullish trend, it’s possible, the spx is going up here to 4 600 and we could be seeing those levels as early as this year, so keep an open, mind and remember to stay objective and follow the price action in the trend.
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