My name is mike schwartz and wow. What a difference a day makes so in last night’s video, i talked about you know, bears be careful, a little warning sign because the markets, you know, tend to go up on fridays and when i say 10, it doesn’t mean 100 of the time, but they tend To go up on fridays historically – and i was a little fearful of that, if you were in my live stream last night, you guys saw that was the first night on live stream. I did not take a trade. There was a very good buy setup. However, i did not take that setup because i was fearful of the downside, so i was respecting the bears and i was respecting the bulls. At the same time, i’ve been very bearish for a very long time in the markets, and i just decided it was time to you know, go on the side of caution and during the live stream. I talked about the difference in you know having a winning mindset and i got to tell you 100. My plan worked today. I was a winner. Did i make a lot of money not as much as i would necessarily like to make but i’m walking away going into the weekend feeling like a winner and winning is a big part of trading when you’re winning trading so much easier? Now, if you guys haven’t, if you guys want to join my next live stream, it’s, simple click, the subscribe button turn on the bell notifications and, if you’d like to receive an email alert half hour to an hour before i go live you can click the link In the description box down below where it says, join, live stream now, let’s, look at a couple different markets today, we’re going to start off looking at the es and it’s not quite closed yet it’ll be closed here in about a half hour or so, but for The most part, it’s it’s, basically closed for the day, we’re going to look at the nasdaq look at the dow, and we want to pay attention.
We want to zoom out a little bit and look at the daily time frames. Now today we had very similar volume to yesterday, which has increased over you know, majority of the other days, still not heavy volume. Yet now here’s some dangers. I am very bearish to market don’t, get that twisted. Some of you guys were messaging me um. Last night: hey what happened to you. I thought you were a bear daddy. I am very bearish. However, today i was very cautious due to being friday. We’Ve already had a couple of down days this week, which you know led me to believe that maybe they’ll try to push the market up on friday. Now things change this morning it was looking like they were going to run it up and then they they smacked. It down – and i was very happy with that now where’s the market likely to go all right so to the downside, here’s some levels that we marked off last night. All these levels are marked off from last night’s live stream, but the upper part of the level is going to come in right. Around 42 58, the lower part of the zone is going to come in at 42, 48 and a quarter. However, i’m still in the camp that i think the market’s coming all the way down to the ‘ we’ll call it ‘.70 price point i’ve been calling for this level for many many months. I’Ve been wrong up to this point at some point, we’re going to come down here and test that level.
Is it going to be next week this this month next month? I don’t know when it’s going to be, but i know this level is going to get tested at some point and i think once we start to sell off. I think this is going to come down fast and furious. Real quick, they’re gon na start trapping these traders that we’re buying up here they’re gon na get trapped on the long side in the way they’re gon na have to get out of their trade. Well, those buyers are gon na have to become sellers as they push the market, lower it’s gon na trigger more selling so on and so forth. How low do we go again? This is gon na, be the first point of stopping the next one’s gon na be down here around the ‘.70 price point, all right, so let’s go ahead and let’s look at the dial real quick. How does the dow look, how how did the dow jones fair up today we look at the dow whoa. I thought we were actually going to run up and hit all time highs, which we just missed it. The high today was 34 975. The all time high was right over here at 30. 30. All right right, hold on at 34 893. Is that right, oh no, no hold! On 34.. I thought it was 34 500. all right. So maybe we did make all time high today. Let’S see 34 975.
. For some reason i don’t think this quote is right: 34. 947. 34.. Wow. Maybe we made a new all time high in the futures market. Today i didn’t think that was the case. I thought when i looked on my mobile app. It said 34 500, which i’m just going to check that real, quick on the stream or not on the stream on this video i’m not going to edit this out, i don’t think all right, so i did check it on the td ameritrade app. It shows 3. 500, but i think, due to contract rollover it’s a little bit different, it shows this candle right here was all time high. So right here i got a 34 893 and today we had a high of 34 and 9.75. So the way ninjatrader has it looks like this is all time highs. The charts on td ameritrade show this as being the all time high over here and it has to do with contract rollover. Now, when we look at this chart, we basically had a hanging man candle here. Then we had two well. This is a little bit of a bearish candle, but then we had kind of a spinning top candle, followed by another hanging, man and now we’re, starting to get the confirmation down. I would like to see the volume pick up a little bit more than what it has and to me this looks like the dow could be getting ready to roll over as well.
Let’S go take a look at the nasdaq nasdaq kind of got dumped on today. As well, look at nasdaq nazak looks a little bit more bearish we’re. Finally, for the first time, going all the way back to may 20th we’re. Finally, maybe going to get it closed below my bias line, whoa that’s that’s showing a different. You know the trend is weakening at least now let’s look at where this could possibly pull back to again i’m just going to use a fibonacci tool. Real quick swing low to swing high, the 38 retracement is gon na, be the first point that i’m looking for this to pull back to, which is 14 200, and it also makes sense because we have a naked poc, that’s kind of hanging around that price point. As well, if we pull over this 30 minute chart real, quick and we’ll have to zoom this out: zoom zoom zoom 14 000 to 2050, which is just slightly above that 38 retracement. So i do think the market’s on its way down here towards this poc. We have you know two other pocs right before it has to clear out. I think it’s very likely those pocs get cleared out in the very near future. So just keep down your radars for the nasdaq. Now let’s go a little bit more in depth. All right and when i say in depth, let’s look at the at the es, real, quick and look at this from a volume profile standpoint and and look at you know what could possibly transpire sunday night.
Well there’s a couple things that i’m looking at one. We can see how fast this market came down all right, so that leaves the two two schools of thought one. Maybe we get a big gap down if we get a big gap down, is it gon na be a gap and go situation where they have the buyers trapped up here and they just sell it off or are we gon na get a small little gap and The market starts retracing back up. This was quite a move down. If you look, we essentially had one two, three, four, five: six, seven, eight red candles consecutive on the 30 minute time period, that’s quite a bit and if we go ahead and we look at our fibonacci extension tool and we pull for an abc completion. We’Ve almost completed that abc pattern to the downside, does that mean we cannot extend it further? No, it does not, and you know it would not surprise me the slightest bit if we come down to at least 4303 and then our job as traders at that point is going to be to gauge, and when i say gauge we need to see. Is the market gon na accept these lower prices? How high are we likely to bounce? This was a prior point that i said. I thought this. The market would come test this last night during the live stream. So i think this point gets tested here in the very near future.
We missed it right here, popped up and then blew right through it and that’s very important when you see this swing point right here. This is a this is a big telltale to me all right, so here’s a little zone that we had when we broke we broke and we ran away from that price point right: that’s kind of the opposite that i was telling you like over here when we Had these highs all right, so when we had this high sitting up here, right, oops let’s go draw one one single line right: we had this high here, see how we broke it and we came back in. I was telling you guys: hey that’s, very weak. We just barely pushed through it. Then we had this high right up over here. Look what happened? We just barely break it boom we slammed back down that to me is a sign of weakness and i talked about that in in past videos. Now, when we look at, you know the level that we had essentially from yesterday’s low, look how we broke it, you can clearly see we broke it with conviction, not even close, not even in the same ballpark we broke it. We ran no questions about it straight to the downside, so that right there is telling me we have a shift in the market in terms of sentiment all right between the bulls and the bears. So we want to be mindful of that now, one of the things that we can look for clues next week so early next week, because i’m not going to be streaming until monday and again i stream monday through thursday, at 8 45 p.
m. But let’s just do a hypothetical let’s say sunday night we come down a little bit more and then we retrace up well now. The next point of interest that we’d have is going to be the swing point. Now. If this is the swing point, we just start going up here, we’d have to draw the line right there, but what we’ll want to do is draw a horizontal line going across our screen right there. Then we want to see when the market comes back down towards that point. Does the market just barely break it like this and start coming back up? If so, that’s going to show us that the momentum in the market to the downside is starting to weaken up a bit. What we want to see in terms of if you’re a bear in the market we want to see, is break it and continue down or even if we break it like this and come back for the retest and then come down. But we want to see that we push away from that level and we don’t hang around that level. For you know quite a bit of while we don’t want to see us breaking it getting back in and start trading higher and whatnot, because to me that’s, going to be a sign of strength in the market and we’re, probably going to retrace a little bit higher. So some things to look out for next week again s p today fabulous moves all the way down very, very pleased with it, and if we actually look from you know at the highs right, here’s a high here is a low, lower high lower low.
Dare i say it: we have a downtrend on the 30 minute time frame and again we’ll see if that transpires and rolls over to the daily chart, and we start to get some movement to the downside, but at least for the bears. There’S hope at this point. Next week we do have a lot of earnings, the faint the fan, the fang stocks will be reporting, but again this week, all the hype was earnings, earnings, earnings, earnings, the market’s gon na rally to the moon to the moon. Right did that happen. Earnings came out. The earnings were great and the market’s starting to sell off so it’s leading me to believe, like i’ve, been saying in past videos that it was a case of buy the rumor sell, the news and again next week could be a little bit different. We have some real high profile earnings coming out, so we do want to keep that on our minds. But again, at this point i think the correction is starting and i do think we’re going to have a nasty nasty pullback in this market. Like always hope you guys enjoyed today’s video, if you did, please give it a thumbs up. It’Ll help. The youtube algorithm suggest the video out to more and more traders and again, if you haven’t yet joined the live streams, i’d love to see you on there. So we can have some dialogue back and forth, make it make the community better we’re, starting to get more and more people in there and we’re chatting back and forth sharing ideas and just having a good time and again, we stream live monday through thursday at 8.