Very very quiet today teaches a quiet day. Practically nothing at all. China has opened today and is trading in a small minus tomorrow. The decision of the central bank of China on the key rate apparently does not dispel the appetite before the decision of the central bank of China. So, of course, the fact that custody plus seems to have agreed went in some aspect towards the United Arab Emirates. From August there will be an increase of 400 thousand barrels per day production here. The situation is the following: I think that they reached an agreement on the spot. This at the moment will negatively affect prices, but in the future, everything is in the hands of the global economic recovery and what will happen to the demand for oil if the demand for oil continues to grow faster than supply, then this change is up to making A cat, If they did not do it, it will practically not affect the oil price in any way. Well, they will not grow very quickly. They will remain at the current values. If, in the fall due to inflation, cooling occurs, then this increase in production can significantly cut oil prices and take them somewhere down to talk about what will be the corrective pullback on the oil price in the fall, I think its premature. There are still facts of hurricanes in the United States, its not clear what and how will inflation be with inflation, how it will affect the financial stock market? So let’s not look here how much it is.
It will cost there. 40 minus 20. 30. This is all fortune telling on the coffee grounds in the fall. It will be visible when the smoke clears and many circumstances go out in such a form in which it will already be possible to understand what is happening. So friends, moving from China to oil prices to due to the fact that custody reached an agreement. There is a certain pressure on. We have a level of 72 for a brand that does not break through until the cons olidations in the range of 70274, while the summer period lasts a fairly high good demand for oil. Due to the fact that America has gotten on wheels and therefore here, I think the factor of high consumption of petroleum gasoline diesel will be a significant help so that oil prices do not go down anywhere. Until here go to the reversal. Information on the weekly chart. But I think until the end of summer, but at least until mid August, most likely there will not be much negative here, but from a week of passing the 72 day timeframe. But again, as you can see, the arrival on 72nd drive the fact that oil starts buy back and go below 72 until they give well just in the next week the next week. It will not be determined about 82 until all factors indicate that 74 has broken through, but 72 is most likely here a decline and accordingly here it will be an attempt to consolidate and from how many by 74, so friends not switching to the hourly timeframe.
In fact, we see here that we did not even give a test 72 already from higher values. A buyout went to the current cop, a corrective rebound. The target of this is from how long now the movement is here. Seventy three and seven respectively the rebound, is choking if there is a corrective rollback with a breakdown of 72 1572. Hardly in this situation, there is a deeper testing of 72 for a breakdown and accordingly, here then, in the foreground of the day. During today, it is possible from how many to seventy three and seven will not happen, but so far more factors testify in favor of how many friends so further gold in hundreds, everything was very good. There well see the hourly timeframe. Of course, the opening did not lead to rapid growth, which is indicated by the cells, but look here now there is a movement upward. The target for today is from how much upward this testing is 1820 7830. Well first, there should be a breakout of 1820 1821. Here is this value of this level respectively? This movement successfully unfolds if there is no repeated corrective rollback and breaking through 1807 1807. If we hold, then everything is fine. There is a movement upward in gold today in the first half of the day, but at least the Tu 16 is how friends gave the American indices s amp p 500 – for this sergey on futures here, in fact, the trend is very alarming, as you can see For several days there has been a downward trend local until today, this opening is somewhat annoying, because here they have broken through the levels that were kept inside it and accordingly, now, at the current moment, it may well be testing 4280 4208 4250 in the range.
If this range is broken, it can very strongly and very significantly fall through the forecasts that the market will collapse. Everything disappeared in August for sure everything will fall well August is so very unpredictable, but I think it would still be logical to hold out until the end of the third quarter and there it was already burning with blue fire. But here, if you switch to a clean copy, then there was a collection rebound just to see the level 4300 round even numbers. They often serve as an obstacle on the path of failure or on the path of growth and here z. Here we have formed a corrective rebound again. There is a range of 4208 4250 of 30 points. If this range does not break through today during the day, then we really have a corrective rebound here and hence the target for the next movement is in the area of 4365 4370. Then what such a movement was negative for the Russian market in general for all sites, but after the hotels it is now trying to redeem it, at least on smd, for this futures among the futures and accordingly, there should be some more or less recovery by at Least four thousand here before 1200 to one o’clock in Moscow, three hundred and sixty because if it does not happen, then it is very likely that by the American trading session this whole structure of the blockage – you will still break through 4208, 4250, so friends, further futures On the RTS index, Russian daily timeframe September futures are roaring, but look oil has gone down.
America smd opening. Well, not openings, not America, but less these new weeks, I’m in the middle of the futures, pisi bent so actually stealing on the RTS futures. The movement is now developing. Its goal is 155000. It will be somewhere here. It will be now if it doesnt keep it. This range will fall by 155, so let’s move from the girl for 4 hours. There is another one., 157 700 magic that can stop. This fall, but if it is broken, just pierced then from here it is very likely that the next stop point will be 155000. While the downward movement is going on. There are no reversal formations just falling responsibly, but my expectation is the next one within the next hours. If here a breakdown occurs, then we go to 155. If a breakdown does not occur now, then we will knock for some time here and a corrective rebound will occur, the target, which is 159 350 if we fix at this value a further downward movement sings from here, even if upward movements in general. Ideally, if the situation is fixed, then it will rebound should be in the area of 162 250 right here with this value, but if here we are about to tell them about now. If there is no protrade of a reversal formation, then today it is very likely. 155000 and below so friends gave the ruble dollar and ride tomorrow, but look here, of course we have on this week of help because there are large payments of ruble taxes, but already today in the morning we directly noted that we touched this upper border of m45.
So far the breakout was not rolled back, which I can say especially here, taking into account the fact that the morning distribution was not what was typed at the bottom. Therefore, there are prospects for further movement, 74, 75, then 75. But look here for situations, I I think in this way now there will be 1 disappear. We have a magic level 74 and 1. Here it is, in fact it is all 408, but in fact it is a range of its 4874 15. This is a gap respectively. If we do not return to this range for an hour or two, then it is very likely that by lunchtime there will be an upward movement to strengthen the dollar, and the goal of this movement will be testing the strength of the level of 70 45 by 45, if we break through then today it will be possible to move to 74 75 75. If there is a tightening now further growth will not go into this range then, accordingly, for today we will get a protargol point. Ruble dollar range: 74 374. It will come back here, it will drag on, but the fact that for oil and smp aggregate, However, a negative movement, this gives an additional impulse and it is possible today to repeat this spike at its end and go even higher than 745 74 75. So here I think at the moment it is more likely that an upward movement will develop, but on condition that it does not get stuck in the range 74.
1507. 408 right here. If it is now rolling back, it starts to trade in this range, then, most likely we will see well at least a short movement to strengthen the ruble, and the purpose of this strengthening will be testing 73. 95. This tick! What are the preconditions for such a movement are the positions of the legal entities in Farsi and so on. Friends, ruble euro euro ruble tumour daily timeframe, but here our situation is not as lively as the ruble gave well, and here everything is easier from the crepe. We opened, and even the ruble began, to try to strengthen if for 5 minutes and cross here we have such a beauty arose. Here. Look we are under the influence of two key factors: oil from n.. Accordingly, if both the one and the other, then both the euro and the dollar will grow against the ruble and accordingly, the dollar will do it more vigorously. As for the euro, the ruble, but there is a level of 8750 587 5, this range respectively. If we are now breaking through it, we will be bogged down in this range, then at we are developing the strengthening of the ruble. The goal of this strengthening 87, 3680, 7 and 3 such a scenario, taking into account the movement of the euro, the ruble does not seem unlikely here. It is more likely now further upward movement of the euro against the ruble. The first target is the movement of 8 775.
Here, like this friends in general, then all these are basic ideas, main points, but not three. Seven ace is much cooler SMP dollar euro ruble oil and gold. I think this is enough for making key decisions.