I think the nasdaq composite is probably the more important, but right now the nasdaq 100 has hit this psychological resistance zone at fifteen hundred that’s um. You know have a prime spot for uh the market to take a breather, pull pull back, maybe a little bit uh before it could get through that resistance. So it was unlikely to get through it on the first try um, but when it, if we go over to the nasdaq one or the nasdaq, composite all right, here’s, the nasdaq composite. This is the market that broke out of this consolidation box several weeks ago, and you can see the nasdaq composite has not tagged 1500. Just yet now i’ve there. There is a pattern that often occurs. It doesn’t happen, 100 percent of the time. Nothing nothing works. 100 of the time, but but i have noticed that when a market any market gets close to a big, you know obvious resistance zone, and especially if it’s had a pretty decent run up to that resistance level, there will very often be a minor pullback prematurely before The resistance is actually hit, and that is traders that got in early in this move and have held through the move. You know when you’re only one two percent away from from tagging the resistance it you know the thought process is that it’s not worth holding on to catch one. You know another one percent or one and a half percent uh and risk that the move um tops a little before the resistance is hit, and you know – and then you get caught so so very often you’ll get get these little pullbacks uh that will occur and Then most of the time again, not 100, but most of the time what happens is the the dip buyers will come in and they’ll they’ll buy that that dip as the premature profit taking the nervous nellie’s cell they’ll, buy that dip and then they’ll ride the the Rest of the move, all the way up to resistance, and so resistance, obviously on the nasdaq composite is, is at 15 000 as well we’re.
We were about almost 200 points, short right here and it’s possible that that’s what’s happening uh yesterday and today – and you know – maybe we got another couple days of this – i don’t know but um, maybe the people that have been holding since uh. You know the this cycle bottomed here and we got into our qqq position right here, as we were coming out of this daily cycle low that’s, not to say that that i would recommend selling positions right now. I think at this point you just want to hang on and and accept that you’re going to get caught in some volatile corrections along the way, but hang on for the rest of the bubble. Just so you don’t, you know, get caught on the sidelines during a big move, but um like i said i think that might be what’s what’s occurring here is we’re just got some premature profit taking, and i expect the buyers will probably come back in pretty soon. Maybe even today and then we’ll we’ll um continue up and and hit that um that major resistance zone at fifteen hundred fifteen thousand and then that’s the point where we might get um a little bit bigger correction, something that would qualify as a as a full daily Cycle low right now, this based on the cycle count on the s p, which is the cyclical driver for stocks. This would just be a half cycle, low uh i’ve noted before most of the uh fang stocks, and i expect that’s where the bubble is going to be.
Um have broken out and the laggard was apple and it broke out a couple days ago. It’S still holding this break out here as the bubble progresses you’re going to see more and more liquidity focused more narrowly into the probably these big tech, um names, apple, amazon, microsoft, google, nvidia, facebook, um, more and more money will be focused into there. So you’re going to get a bigger and bigger divergence with the rest of the market, other sectors will start to fade and the market will be driven higher by just a few big name stocks, so that appears to be what’s happening where, as i noted in my Last video, the advanced decline line is starting to diverge and a lot of sectors are diverging they’re, not following the the regular market, higher um, and so i, i think, we’ve. I think i think we’re setting up for the typical bubble type top where money starts coming out of underperforming areas, sectors and stocks and just starts to concentrate in these big name, stocks that drive the bubble and uh, and this can go on for three to four Months um, my best guess, is probably a rally into september, maybe even early october and depending on how far the um nasdaq can go up. If we can do 50 or more in that amount of time, then i would say that’s, probably we’re, probably getting close enough to the top of the bubble that you need to be thinking about controlling greed and getting out and and i’ll warn one more time that That there is going to be some extreme volatility on the way up.
This is not going to be just a you know, a one way, joy ride to the top there. There are going to be severe profit, taking events along the way. The first one will almost certainly get recovered. We may have a second one that that one could be recovered as well, but if we uh, you know if we get through 15, 000 and and the retail public really starts to take notice and they really start to drive that that bubble, phase and i’m going To say, if we can, if the nasdaq can get to 17 5, then we’re 20 000 is probably going to start pulling like a magnet, and at that point i’d say the odds are pretty good that the bubbles at least going to go that far, and it May go considerably above that as well.