Whether it’s, statistically likely and we’ve got some great stats for you throughout the video we’ve also got our technical analysis levels for the s, p, 500, nasdaq, bitcoin, gold, tesla and more to cover, and what we saw yesterday in the bonds which is here we’ve got the 20 years has us thinking there’s some rotation going on and wall street is, of course, behind it. They’Re nasty guys stay tuned. Okay. Well, here begins our recap of the market closed 15th of july 2021 and, as we always do as a community together, let’s take a look at this s. P 500 heat map of large companies gives us a bit of an idea of where the money was flowing. Throughout the day we can see semiconductors were down. This is off the back of bad news coming out of one of the semiconductor manufacturers. Unfortunately, we had the fang down but, more importantly, look over here on the right hand, side. For another day, we had consumer defensive and utilities leading and we’ll talk about why that’s important in a few moments, but firstly, let’s have a look at the indices overall, dow jones held a bullish day, actually pretty bullish across the board here for the dow jones and Then we were spiking all over the place for the s: p, 500, nasdaq and iwm the russell 2000 we started. Okay, went down through, of course, question time with jay powell and all that type of stuff.
That happened, and then we ended up at a not a great close. I would say for the market, however, it’s been very bullish and we’ll be talking about some of the key things that i believe is going on with the psychology of the market throughout the video. So which sectors were hot utilities, consumer staples or defensive sectors? Now, when we start seeing these types of sectors running, should we be concerned? I would say yes, this is the type of market. Where you know. Are they finding value in these sectors or are they rotating in? We just talked about bonds at the start of the video we’ll, be having a look at that. So we put cap positioning in bonds, positioning in defensive assets sounds like wall street’s, getting ready for something and they usually take a little while to get this in i’ll. Explain it throughout the video. So i’ve got some great stats here and i think this one’s awesome. So it’s got to do with the russell 2000. So if we take july 13th, there were more new lows than new highs within that index. For the second consecutive day now in this guy’s data, martin’s data for the russell 2000 new highs and new lows and he’s, taking this back to the june 2000 period, what happened this week has only happened three times september 2014 july 2015, october 2018. In all three cases, three months later, both the s – p, 500 and russell 2000 – were at least 10 percent lower, so we’re at all time highs across markets.
Here we’ve been talking about this by the rumor, sell the fact during earnings season, and i want to just quickly show you a few interesting things about the time of year september july, late october, all of the bladder end kind of months of the year. This is usually where the u.s market starts to struggle and straight away. I think hmm, is this the trap now. Is it going to happen tomorrow, no it’s talking about three months, and i think this is a very important factor. You can’t necessarily exactly time the market, but you can put together some really great stats that help you gain a little bit of perspective on whether we need to be optimistic or whether we need to be cautious and go a little bit more bearish. On our general optimism and remember, optimism does pay in the stock markets over time, so here we’ve got the dollar index to start our technical analysis and again, the dollar index at the moment on the weekly is bullying. We’Ve got that 9280 resistance, we’re still looking for a closure above the 50 exponential moving average, which is the one over here and we’re sitting on our hands at this time. If we get above 9280 on a weekly close wow, do i think the bulls are back in the dollar index? In fact, i think that is incredibly significant if we get another pullback underneath the 50 exponential moving average and a closure i’m looking for a movement under 92 to signify okay time to short the dollar.
These are times where you know, through your technical analysis, that you need to just sit back and chillax and do nothing until you find a clear direction and that’s the great thing about ta and using it with your fundamentals, using it with your other data. You’Re figuring great key zones for you to focus on and when it’s time to focus and when it’s time not to focus let’s have a look here at the tlt. So this is, of course, the 20 year treasury bonds and you’ll notice that these have been pulling back consecutively to the 20 exponential moving average as a community we’ve been covering this a lot, because i think bonds are starting to heat up with needing to look at Them now, smart money is in bonds. You might say tom, smart money can’t be in an investment that sucks over a decade or 20 years, true, but smart money. What they’re mandated to do is they have to hold assets, they rotate into defensive assets. They rotate into defensive bonds and they do this because they’ve always got to be invested and they’ve got to go somewhere now, if they’re going into bonds remember this happened back in before the pandemic, so we found out about this whole problem with the pandemic. Around 15th of jan, the bond market run and it ran and it ran and ran into the this fear idea. However, the stock market was just like hey it’s, all good let’s go up, let’s, trap lots of retail traders and then dump it off so it’s amazing.
When you look back on it, the bond market was preempting. You know that market crash and and definitely the smart money was rotating out, leaving everyone else holding the bag. So here we’ve got tlt we’re moving up and overall we just got above the daily 200.. Now, if you have a look at the daily 200 it’s, incredibly significant supports eventually broke down, became resistances started to short off buying during, of course, the pandemic, and then we scroll over here look at this shorts off that level. It closed above significant uptrend started and then it found also some buying suppression there. So the 200 is the real deal on this bond. We can clearly see that where’s the next level. I expect them to go to well, of course, it’s going to be support. Support support resistance, we’re, looking at an increase in the bond here if we have an increase in the bond and at the same time, we’re going to see the market kind of like making these highs or hovering around these highs, possibly making new all time highs. This is the type of thing that i look at. I go where’s that smart money going we’ve got to prepare for what they’re setting up we’ve got that russell. Stat we’ve got the bonds. We’Ve got the dollar index. Potentially, these are all signaling. Some further buying pressure. Let’S now move over to gold what’s going on in gold, so we talked about the two hour yesterday we got a long leg, doji bullish hammer and, of course, a good little day trade.
Now, if you see a 20 moving average here, find support, support and it’s been pretty good across the board. Will you buy this zone? The answer is generally not you’ve got a peak, you’ve got a trough and you have a lower peak. Currently remember it’s, all about with buying dynamic supports. You want to have new peaks higher troughs new peaks higher troughs you don’t want the momentum to be slowing in your favor. Now we have a great video that we put out about this particular gold trade it’s called how to look at stop hunts or something like that. You can check it out a few days ago. I put it up, definitely subscribe. If you enjoy the video – and it shows you some of the things that i look at in these markets now, we’ve got a long leg doji here on the daily, so clearly we’ve got indecision at the peak and we’re. Looking for a break above here on the smaller time frames to take us to that 1840 1842 kind of promised land that’s the area where we’ve got resistance. Spikes across here and previous support so i’d like to see gold up at this zone and at the moment i think, it’s, just consolidating uh, most likely after that initial rampant run. Of course, it’s going to trap some people now doesn’t it let’s move over to tesla. In the market in general, uh now tesla’s held up pretty well. Yesterday, 0.
43 percent could be a boating of of good bullish momentum here if the market can turn around the futures into the session. We’Ll we’ll be looking at that throughout the bid as well, and i don’t mind tesla at this level. However, then we’ve clearly got our bottom end trend line, finding pressure, so we’ve bought off it once twice three times four times five times now, we’ve got to ask ourselves the questions. Have we been making generally higher peaks when we’ve been doing this? Well, not necessarily because over here we didn’t and of course over here we did – and here we didn’t again, so this is the level for tesla to buy off if it doesn’t and it doesn’t hold through here. You know it gets past 6. 30.. I think this thing is literally cooked it’s not going to be very good, and i expect the rest of the market to be doing badly as well, but for now tesla is moving higher let’s hope it can get back up to 690 close for the first daily. Ever above there would be ideal and then, of course, have a writer at 700.. This is the one stock in the hyperstocks that really hasn’t done anything for quite some time. If you go back and you think about it, tesla’s been boring since march. In fact, it’s the same price as it pretty much was in february, so yeah tesla very, very slow here. Maybe it runs into earnings.
You can see the earnings report over here and all of these dates kind of signal that buy the rumor sell. The fact kind of concept as well so i’m not done with the market just yet but i’m. Definitely thinking hmm is late july. The problem time for this market we’ll find out together, i’m sure amc what’s, going on there. A few people saying yeah amc’s buying it’s great it’s glorious. I think the two hour 20 is dynamic resistance. At this point, you’ll notice, the two hour 20, is at a key critical zone as well. We have support support support. This could be resistance. 40 50 is where the bulls get back in control, so they need to close it above here and i could see it rally a little bit and then have some serious problems and the fear to come back into this market so be careful on amc, because just Because i had an eight percent day, it’s moving up, it all looks good think about it. 50 exponential moving average here on the daily previous supports, acting as resistance and guess what we saw that exact same thing happen over here. It rallied back up created a long leg doji on the two hour and then shorted off what a great thing that was. We talked about on the channel here and i’m i’m glad that some people did well from that, but don’t think, oh, i think that’s really tasty. At this stage.
The technicals do not look great on amc but it’s, a hyper stonk it’s a a serious meme. So it can do anything, but technical has been playing out all right there. Let’S move over to the qqq, so you’ll notice downward day was occurring. Let’S have a look at the actual four hour chart, which is the one we’ve been watching. So the four hour closed ride on support, and is there a problem here? Unlike gold, we have a new peak, so we’ve got peak trough higher peak higher trough at this stage on our favorite moving average. The 20 on what has been very good, dynamic support so think about if i’m wall, street and i’m nasty and i’m thinking. How do i extract maximum money when i’m sipping my piccolo latte thing and i’m thinking? Hmm, i want the most amount of money as possible from those retail guys. You know those memes dog guys. How do we take all their cash? Well, one of the ways we do, that is creating little crashes, which is the step back that then freak everyone else out then create new highs into. Hopefully, our community trend lines and what they’re doing here is they create a huge amount of fear. I’M sure a lot of people are here today, they’re very fearful in the market and all of a sudden. Then they create the rally, and that creates this idea that i’ve just got to keep buying these dips i’ve got to buy the dip, because every time i buy the dip i’m going to be successful.
Well, unfortunately, that eventually doesn’t work out, but at this stage it has been so, i believe, it’s added support and, of course, if we see a friday close underneath that that could be interesting. I think back down to the 355 for the qqq, then daily 20 previous level of support previous level of resistance. This line will then become at the very important zone and if we get through that, what have we done? We’Ve weakened heavily. So i think it’d be like this bounce movement down and once you get through there of course, all the way back down to 345.. So there’s some serious bear potential here. But at this stage, it’s just doing the exact same thing, that’s always done, which is going back down to that 20 exponential and bouncing off it. We hope it makes sense running into, of course, the earnings as well 26 27th of july 31st of july. The debt ceiling, i believe, is going to be discussed for the us government. These are all great excuses for them to be like, oh, you know, we think the market’s overpriced and it’s, always in plain sight, whatever excuse they have it’s. Just you don’t see it until it generally happens. We try to see it in the price action let’s move over to the dow dow looking actually pretty good, consolidating above the breakout here. We have, of course, resistance resistance, resistance, resistance, becoming support. We get a little bullish hammer here and we’re looking for a 35 000 close breakout and that should signify some further buys occurring in the dow now not much else to say about this chart long leg, doji, bullish, hammer, no closure underneath this zone at this stage Looks pretty good, i mean the trend line’s still fully in play that we’ve got here on the higher time frame, nothing to be concerned about yet on this let’s move over now to the spx.
So is the s p? 500 scary? Well, we have our community trend line that we’ve been using. This is, of course, our aim and our expectation. I always like to look at it from the perspective of if you’re worried about the market. Just go over. The weekly have a look at the weekly. How far away away from the weekly 20. now when you get really far away from it, like you, were over here, 12.52 percent, you better, damn be or up very, very cautious because that’s too far away at that point, you are thinking okay, we need to with Hyper extended, we need to get back to that 20 exponential moving average stat and that’s what occurred it occurred over here and it’s been a while, since it’s been back. In fact, since march 21, we hit it and then all of these weeklies we haven’t got back yet it’s been nice and bullish. We’Re not super far away, but let’s think about a scenario where maybe it’s up here and then and we’re up here on the the market. So we go up like this about a seven percent away from the 20 exponential is usually where i get super concerned and i get very very worried. So i like looking at that and i think that’s that’s key and worthwhile doing we go on to the daily. Nothing much going on here on the daily let’s have a look at the four hour. Four hour 20 got hit, that’s of course, the same level as previously was purchased off and was purchased here as well.
I like to see again a new peak that’s occurred here. The market’s been generally finding strength, it’s pulled back found a bit of buying pressure near the close, and i think again, the price action is telling us that things are okay for now in this market it could change if we get a closure underneath. But at this point mostly bullish across the board for the s p 500. let’s now go over to bitcoin, so i’ve been talking about the weekly here as being the key level. It still is. Every weekly has closed above the 50 exponential it’s, currently 31.8. So it’s not looking too good, but it’s done this before let’s have a look at the daily bullish. Hammer no follow through bearishness came in later in that day, and you saw a new low. That could be just a stop. Hunt though, and we’ll talk about the big whales in the section, a second and and see what they’re doing but yeah i like to see, follow through at this stage. What do you say, closures here, closure here, i guess it’s, the last line of defense on the dailies. Have we even closed below this point? Let’S have a look? No we’ve never closed a daily underneath this so it’s now or never really. For this thing to uh to put up or shut up series of lower peaks, never makes me happy. I i’m indifferent to this chart. Look, i know bitcoin can come out of nowhere and all i’m looking at is the weekly and then i go over here and i say what are the nasty whales doing in bitcoin? Are they shorting they’ve been shorting nasty whales, but they just started clipping their orders? Look at this even fed chairpal spoke about some uh crypto.
This week he said he was going to potentially regulate tether. That that’ll be so bad. When that happens, can you imagine tether? I don’t know what you actually in the comments down below you guys reckon tether’s real. Let me know uh, but that’ll show you got to the end of the video as well, but over here, yeah i’m, seeing a bit of movement from the whales where they’re pulling back some of their shorts and that’s a good sign for bitcoin. Hopefully, that can come through for anyone not knowing this is data mish free website. You can go check that out so we’ll be live streaming, probably about five minutes before the great core retail sales retail sales comes out. That will be one hour before the market open new york, so that’s 8 30 a.m, new york, time and you’ll notice. Here, core retail sales and retail sales is expected. Usually i don’t look at this stat too much, but as we know what we’re looking for guys, you guys say it out loud with me: we’re looking for a slight miss or a hit of expectations, we’re in the market, we’re bad news slightly bad news is great News because it doesn’t allow papa powell to take away our sweet liquidity from the market. We need all of his tools and if we don’t have his tools, then we really could be looking at that correction. Keep in the back of your mind, it’s time to be careful in the market.
It’S time to you know just sit back and just go. You know what i’m pretty happy with what i’ve got and and start putting a plan together for what is going to inevitably be a pullback at some point now there was always a pullback in the markets. Doesn’T, go up forever, i’m, not saying crash i’m, just saying correction, so those stats, i think, are pretty good and i hope it helps you out remember to subscribe. Give us a like if you like the video and come check us out, live one hour before the market open bye. For now.