com today, i’ll be doing some analysis on the us indices. We’Ll start off with the s p 500, as you guys can see here, um pretty much since the crash in 2020. We’Ve really seen two major corrections, one here and one here and pretty much since then uh we recovered back up. You see here test back down and pretty much since november 2000, uh 2020 we’ve pretty much been treating in this trend ever since uh let’s. Take a look: we see here, uh this channel trend to be exact, and we see here is the touch touch here. We actually managed to break below the trend, but, as you can see, we did manage to close back up just right uh on the trend. Another touch here touch it touch it and again. Here we, this move was quite interesting. Um, if you guys may remember this corresponds with powell’s comment that we may be hiking rates, hiking rates sooner than expected, and the market obviously sold off, not surprisingly, but what’s surprisingly, is despite this pretty bearish news, the market pretty much um, you know just turned sideways: Uh, of course, we came back down break below it, but again managed to close. You know we covered all of it and still managed to continue to trade at this trend. The thing that i do like to point out, that is probably the most interest uh most important point right now. Is this yellow resistance level, as you guys see here, um, we see touches here here and here, but pretty much since may of 2021 we’ve been trading below this resistance level.
We have struggled um to break above it since may of this year. We see here here again and uh this past few weeks. We see multiple moves, trying to um basically break above this level. So what do i think is going to happen next? We could be trading sideways for a while uh, but for those of you guys who understand the mechanics of the market, when you do trade sideways for a while, usually volume is going to drop and volatility is going to drop. However, the way the market works is volatility and volume will always come back, and that could be for many reasons. Sometimes it just happens because some big buyer jumps in the market sometimes because it’s an event, some sort of news, something the fed said or something. The government said many factors involved, maybe earnings many things involved, but what’s important is motility will always return, and the question is when it does return. What move is it going to do, and obviously the two most obvious scenario is price will come back down test this bottom side of the channel, maybe even come all the way down to green, but as long as we close above this green line, i would say That this channel train will be trading in since november of last year, will pretty much be intact on the second center. On the other hand, we could break out. We could see a bullish break out to the upside and potentially come and test this top end of the channel right here, even even higher.
We may see a test at this red line here now. Let’S, take a look at the vex. The vix, as you can see here, has been pretty low, uh relative, where we were then you know a few months ago, but we still slightly elevated um. I would like to see the vix you know go back below. You know 11, but let’s see what happens um. We are it’s been a while, since we’ve seen a spit a huge spike in uh uh spike in the vix. We pretty much see a huge spike corresponding with you know at least a five percent correction, every uh. Every year since 2018, we see one here in 2018, 1 and 20 uh early 2019, and we obviously we saw one in 2020 due to the covert uh crisis, but we have yet to see a huge spike in 2021.. Now let’s take a look at the nasdaq nasdaq. Just like the s. P is also creating a resistance level here, corresponding this touch um again trading. This channel trend nasdaq has been much stronger than nsp snp. Although the past recent months, sap has actually been uh outperforming uh since february, but recently that the nasdaq has gained more ground and as you can see here, the nasdaq has not tested the bottom side of this channel for a really long time. Pretty much since november. Of last year, we’ve always traded in this upper level of trend for a while.
Another thing i’d, like to point out is the rsi is pretty high on the nasdaq. For those who may be new in the market when rsi is high, that may be signal, sell, sell, sell, however that’s, not necessarily the case, and we don’t have to go far to see an example of that in 2020 we see here the rsi remained above 70 For pretty much a month, um so it’s very possible that we could see. This move continue for another month, there’s a lot of wall street analysts to say that we are still more likely to see a blue up top than a correction, so there’s great arguments for the both sides and i’ll love to get into that um more in depth. In the coming weeks, uh some new videos, but nevertheless do not think that this oversold means that we will see a correction or a big sell off soon. Definitely not. We may see a three four percent correction, not even correction three or four percent – maybe even five percent uh sell off, but i it’s very possible that we may not see a 10 per 10 percent correction for um. You know a while this is the downhill industrial average, as you can see here, just like the nasdaq and just like the s p 500. We are actually trading at a resistance level. We see here that since may, just like the s p um, we have been struggling to break above this, as you can see here.
We may touch here and may touch again here in june and of course, we’re testing it right now, as we speak in july, and just like the smp. We could either break above and move to the upside, or we could just break back down to pull back. Potentially back down to 33, 000 or even lower, and lastly, the russell russell actually is the most different of all the indexes. We have been trading sideways since january of this year, um that’s, pretty you know, that’s very different from the under uh other indices and yes, we’ve been uh. You know seems like we’re forming a wedge um a bullish wedge. Actually, we could see price continue to trade, narrow and narrow, and then we see a break out to the upside and that’s very possible uh, but also a breakout to the downside, it’s also possible, as well uh, but nevertheless russell is something i would definitely keep an Eye on since we’ve been pretty much trained sideways since jan of this year. Last thing um i’ll just like to show you guys the economic calendar for this year, uh sorry this week this week is pretty interesting week. We do see. We do have cpi data coming out as well as mr pablo um, the fedshare uh. We will be testifying um starting on wednesday. I think he’s also doing thursday as well. Yep thursday, as well let’s, see here william speech. No, it does seem like he will be testifying on wednesday and thursday so wednesday and thursday definitely keep an eye on the market on those two days.
Um some comments he may give out he’s. Obviously, gon na try to you know be as neutral as possible, but some of the comments he say can be take. Um may not be taken kindly or on the other hand, some of the comments you say may actually be a bullish catalyst for the market. It is really hard to say, but nevertheless, wednesday and thursday are going to be very important days to keep an eye on.