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Video were going to go over the three areas of disturbances again and see where they can develop over the next five days, as well as go beyond the five day, forecast and see what can happen for the rest of the month of august into the beginning of September, if you like detailed weather breakdowns hit the subscribe button and notification bell to get all of my upcoming videos, so were looking at the latest satellite image of the atlantic basin for tuesday august 24th and on the left side of your screen in the caribbean. That is our disturbance number one to the south of hispaniola, puerto rico and north of venezuela to the top right of that. We have disturbance, number two, also known as invest 97 l and then the bottom right of your screen, uh to the south of the cabo verde islands. We have invest 98, l, tropical disturbance, number three and you can see here. This is our vorticity map and right now we have an elongated structure in the caribbean, so were not going to see any development from that disturbance number one for a little while, not until it gets to the southern and western portions of the caribbean when well have More favorable conditions, but then you see the uh more circular, but elongated structure to the top right up. There, thats 97 l trying to get itself organized as it moves north of the saharan dust now and then just to the south of the kabul verde islands.
We have another elongated area of vorticity, that is 98 l, so these three systems are still not showing any signs of low pressure systems at the surface, but but they are getting a little bit better, more organized, at least in terms of 97 l, which is why It has a greater chance of developing right now in the two day forecast disturbance, one in the caribbean has a 10 chance of forming 97 l has a 20 chance of forming and 98 l also has a 20 chance of forming in the next two days. So if we look at disturbance 1 first, we see that its like that vorticity signature, its got, stretched out thunderstorms, stretching from columbia almost to puerto rico, and the virgin islands and thats because of that elongated vorticity that you just saw in the previous slide and over The next five days it has a 60 chance of forming once in the western portions of the caribbean and in the southern portion of the gulf of mexico, and it has that elongated vorticity because of very high levels of wind, shear right now. Heres, a close up of 97 l and most of its done, the storm convections to the right half of this trying to develop low pressure system, which has is pretty much devoid of thunderstorms right now, as you can see here on your screen, but its moving into Warmer waters and will eventually be in a lower windshear environment, so it has a better chance of developing right now out of the three systems and the national hurricane center is giving it a 70 chance heres.
The latest spaghetti track guidance models showing this storm moving. First towards bermuda and then its going to make that right turn and go back out the sea as it goes around the azores, bermuda high and our model intensity guidance says we could see this one develop into a category one hurricane in about five plus days. From now heres the lita satellite image of invest 98l, its the opposite of 97 hell its got most of its thunderstorm convection to the left of this developing low pressure system because of some wind shear and its going to be moving in a west northwest direction. Over the next five days, with a thirty percent chance of developing down from forty percent last year, because it will be moving into a more uh heavy windshear environment, as well as the saharan dust layer, which will likely dry up those thunderstorms heres. The latest spaghetti track guidance model 4, 98 l showing that west northwest direction going north of the caribbean islands and potentially going out to sea as well and its model intensity guidance saying we could see a possible tropical storm in two days. But then, after that starts to decline because of that saharan dust layer and increased wind shear. So if we look at all three disturbances right now plotted against the sea surface temperatures we see in black 97 ls moving into a more uh favorable environment, where the sea surface temperatures are going to be well above normal for this time of year and its going To be moving into areas that are 28 29 degrees celsius that are to the east of bermuda and thats, going to allow it to create more thunderstorm convection decrease that low pressure system and potentially form into a tropical storm.
The next one on our list would be tropical storm ida. Then in the caribbean we are going to be moving into relatively warm waters, uh its around 29 degrees celsius around the entire caribbean right now. But then, if it goes into the uh gulf of mexico, the southern portion still a little bit cooler uh because of grace moving through, but its forecasted to potentially move towards texas or louisiana or the uh to the south of mexico, and those temperatures are 29 plus Degrees celsius pretty much 88, almost 90 degrees celsius. I mean a fahrenheit and thats bath water for anybody who knows, and that could potentially be a bad news if that storm is heading in that direction. So here is our vorticity map using the european model on the left and the gfs model on the right again, the black hexagon is 97 l, the pink hexagon is 98 l, and the red hexagon is disturbance. Number one. You can see that all of them dont have that close low low pressure system right now, theyre all open waves and theyre, pretty elongated in the cyclonic vorticity on both the european and gfs models. Now before i was saying that the disturbance one will have a lot of wind shear here, you can see it on the map here due to this upper level: low thats around the bahamas and cuba and thats, creating that ton of wind shear that eventually this low Will break down and will have more of an upper level, ridge form overhead or disturbance, one and thats when were going to see development of this system more than two days from now, 98 l again is moving into that more favorable, low wind, shear environment, highlighted by That those blues and uh white colors and then 98 l is in a slightly wind, sheared environment, uh, where the winds are moving from the east to the west, so thats, why its thunderstorms on the west side of that developing low pressure system.
So if we move forward to thursday august 26th, we see now uh 98 l on the european model and gfs model is trying to consolidate into a ball of more concentrated cyclonic vorticity, as well as disturbance number one in the caribbean. Now that its uh linking up with the central american gyra and then we still see 97 l just to the east of bermuda, still as an open wave, not really developing just yet, but we can see here its in a favorable winter environment it does. It is encountering some dry air, so it has to redevelop that thunderstorm convection now that its going to be in those warmer waters to the east of bermuda. But we see in the caribbean that upper level ridge is starting to develop and its breaking down that upper level low. That has moved now towards the uh west of the yucatan peninsula, so that central american gyre is drawing up all that moisture uh for this developing system in the caribbean. And then, if we look back in the main development region, our low pressure system is in a favorable winter environment, but is moving to the west northwest. And you see those yellows and oranges. Thats, more wind, sheer associated with some dry air and thats, going to rip that storm apart after two days. So if 98 l is going to develop, it needs to in the next two days. Otherwise, it probably wont now, if we look at it five days from now, we see on the european model on the left between stay.
Two and five has developed into a tropical storm 98 l below it has dissipated on both models. Uh, the gfs is indicating the 97 l to either be a tropical depression or a weak. Tropical storm european has a stronger tropical storm, but the gfs has our caribbean disturbance now moving across the yucatan peninsula into the bay of campeche and will start to develop more into a tropical depression after that, based on this model run, the european model is saying not So much just yet! So if we look on the left of your screen at the vo, the wind shear, there will be a lot of wind shear moving from the gulf of mexico down into the western caribbean. But our storm will be located in the western portions of the gulf at this point on the other side of the yucatan for disturbance number one under this upper level, uh ridge and thats, going to be creating that huge amount of outflow to really deepen that low Pressure system, as it moves to the west northwest either to mexico, to texas or even straight north, towards louisiana, and we see that the pressure at this point is at a thousand four millibars, with a ton of moisture with it. 97L has encountered that dry air and lost its thunderstorm convection with the wind shear, and then we see above it, 97 l is strengthening down to a 993 millibar tropical storm. Maybe a weak trop hurricane at this point in the middle of the atlantic and if we move it out to a week from now to next tuesday august 31st, we see on the european model a tropical storm, making landfall with louisiana.
That is our disturbance number one. The gfs is taking it to the texas mexican border and we see both uh what would be ida, because that would probably form first from 97 l moving out to sea towards europe, and we have a new tropical wave coming off the coast of africa. That i highlighted in green in our main development region, which the european model is suggesting, could develop by the end of the month, maybe the first day in september. And if we take that out on the european model, we see not only that uh tropical wave. But another one right behind it, trying to develop as well and that first wave would potentially uh become a hurricane on its approach to the caribbean islands by the time we get to the first week in september. Now the gfs model goes out a little bit further and has its not really picking up so much on that main development storm. But it is picking up on a second central american gyrostorm moving through the western caribbean after our disturbance number one made landfall and it too follows in its path. But this time goes between the yucatan and cuba and then curves towards mexico or texas as a potential major hurricane moving through the gulf of mexico for the first week of september. Thank you for watching this video. If you liked it, please hit the like button and leave a comment. Please share this video with your family and friends on social media and, if youre new and, like detailed weather breakdowns hit the subscribe button and notification bell to get all of my upcoming videos.
