National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Tropical cyclone Will Invest 99L become a Major Hurricane in the Gulf? | TS Ida, TS Julian, TS Kate?!

If you like, detailed weather breakdowns hit, the subscribe button and notification bell to get all of my upcoming videos, so were looking at the latest update of the go 16 satellite image from and theres. A couple of pink hexagons on here that i wanted to discuss. The one on the most bottom left, that is, a new tropical depression, thats forming in the eastern pacific ocean and will likely become tropical storm nora in the next day, or so that may be key to our potential hurricane and its interaction with it. When it moves into the gulf of mexico, well discuss that later in the video, then we have two hexagons north of each other, the one on the south thats our invest 99l and thats. Our potential gulf storm thats going to move into the gulf this weekend and then, on top of that thats, an upper level low thats, going to be interacting with it as well. Well discuss all that in a bit to the left of to the right of there. Sorry thats invest 97l trying to develop then to the bottom right. We see two tropical waves, the leftmost one in the main development region is 98 l, and then we have a wave coming off the coast of africa. That looks rather healthy now, over the next two days, invest 91 im. Sorry 99 l, which is disturbance. 1, has a 50 chance of forming disturbance; 297 l a 40 chance of forming and disturbance.

Three. Ninety eight l, a twenty percent chance of forming over the next two days, now disturbance one. Ninety nine l has an eighty percent chance of forming in the next five days: disturbance. 2 97 l 80 as well, and disturbance. 3 98 l a 30 chance of forming, but i think that is increasing a little bit based on the european model and ill show. You that, at the end of this video, our main discussion for this video is basically going to be on. Invest 99l also disturbance, one. This one has the biggest potential to affect people in the caribbean, yucatan, the jamaica, cayman islands and then, especially in the gulf uh gulf states. The texas louisiana, maybe as far east as mississippi and alabama thats, still to be undetermined uh. But all these areas should be under watch for this potential storm which could blow up into a major hurricane. So right now we see this uh developing upper level um, i should say mid level low, trying to develop some circulation, its still rather disorganized and stretched out because of the upper level low, with creating some wind shear just to the northwest of this developing system, and You can see that better here on our vorticity map uh, the pink hexagons, are our three disturbances, plus our upper level low, which is transferring some more vorticity down near the surface, but its unexpected to develop into anything tropical its just really going to try and interfere With invest 99l in the caribbean as it continues moving west and dissipates.

Now you see in the caribbean that elongated structure, that is 99 l and you can see that better with our ascat scan that was earlier today and i put a line here, showing the trough access of 99l, where we have our conv winds that are converging and We can see this very sharp axis where were seeing our developing low pressure center near the surface now, depending on where our low pressure center develops along that trough axis will determine the actual pre. Well, the starting point i should say of where our storm could project go in the future if it forms further to the south, it could affect areas like nicaragua and honduras and then cross the yucatan. It forms further north, like some of the models im going to show. You today are suggesting it could go between the yucatan and cuba and then enter the gulf of mexico, not hitting any lands and then could rapidly intensify, while in the gulf of mexico, before making landfall either in texas or louisiana, could go as far east as mississippi Or alabama as well now, the latest model intensity guidance is not showing a major hurricane, but the models are and im going to show you uh one of them, but we are expected to at least get a category 1 hurricane out of this storm before making landfall Somewhere in the gulf of mexico, so heres, the current conditions for our cyclonic vorticity on the left is the european model on the right.

Is our gfs model, our black little black hexagon in the pacific thats our newly formed tropical depression 14, which will become nora, and then we have an elongated black hexagon that i have thats invest 99l and i made it elongated because of that trough axis and the Different areas where this low pressure sensor near the surface could develop now right now, its in very warm waters, around 29 degrees celsius, upper 80s and fahrenheit and itll as it moves to the northwest towards the western caribbean. It will be in slightly below average temperature water for this time of year, but you can see its still 28 29 degrees celsius, which is plenty warm to develop a tropical storm in and around the cayman islands. And if we look at our how deep that layer of warm water goes, the reds indicated around jamaica and the cayman islands is showing very deep water. So its got a lot of warm potential to draw energy from without churning up the sea and bringing up cool water uh below to weaken it. So thats not a good sign for the islands, but it is obviously a good thing for the hurricane because it wants this energy to develop. Now, if we look at the upper levels of the atmosphere on the left hand of your screen, we see those yellow and reds uh swirl marks which are making like a sideways. U thats our upper level trough and low thats uh, bringing that wind shear just to the west of our developing tropical system, where we have our trough access.

We have little wind shear right now, so thats going to help development and its going to draw up all that moisture to help lower the low pressure sensor with those thunderstorms. So as we move forward to tomorrow, august 26th, i highlighted and read our upper level low, which is transferring some energy down to the surface, and then we see our developing low pressure system on the european model. Its actually got three areas that could potentially develop one. Just to the north of panama, one just to the south of jamaica and then one in between both of those and the gfs has an elongated trough axes as well, with more concentration right now towards the lower end. But you see one just to the south of jamaica that one may act, which is small. There could become the more dominant one and ill show you why in this video, so as we move forward to friday august 27th, we see our upper level low, continuing to move west over the yucatan peninsula and will slowly died out and we see on the european Model on the left that more northern portion of the cycle of the developing low pressure center and trough consolidated on the northern end around the cayman islands. So its going to take a more northern track, possibly towards louisiana or mississippi, based on where it forms on this model run. The gfs is still showing two areas of competing psychonic vorticity, but the northern one that was developing south of jamaica will become the more dominant one.

I believe because were going to have a developing upper level ridge overhead, which is going to allow that proper exhaust. When you have converging winds near the surface around the low pressure center, those then rise, and then when it you have that rising motion. You need an upper level ridge overhead to allow for the proper exhaust of this r uh converging air at the surface and rising through the atmosphere, and you can see with this developing outflow with the reds on the right side of this north and right side of The storm over the islands thats why the northern portion will likely become more dominant compared to the southern portion and take off and become the main center of the storm. Now, as we move into uh saturday day three from now on august 28th, the gfs is saying its gon na possibly brush bride, the yucatan peninsula as a tropical storm. The european model is saying its gon na brush by uh the western end of cuba. So somewhere is that cone of uncertainty uh if it develops on this northern end, like i, we most likely believe it will uh its gon na go somewhere between the yucatan and cuba. Just the exact tract is unknown because we dont know where the center is developed. Just yet, then, you can also see on the european model. In this 97 l in red and 98 l and pink uh trying to develop as well well get to those in a little bit.

So if we move now to sunday august 29th, we see the storm is in the middle of the gulf of mexico on both models strengthening towards a hurricane now um. If we look at the gfs model, we see on the left thats our wind shear, its very low around the low pressure center of our developing hurricane, which is according to this model in 993 low pressure center. And then, if you see just look to the left of that, we have tropical storm nora and its outflow that could potentially interact with our storm in the gulf of mexico. Hence why i said it was well discuss that as well. But if nora is weaker and we have an even better outflow and upper level ridge over our storm in the gulf, this will likely not come into play. But this the direction of the storm is going to be dominated by a high pressure thats over the southeast. United states, a stronger storm will be able to push up against that uh high high pressure ridge and actually go more towards the north. If its a weaker storm, it can go around that high pressure and maybe go a little bit more to the west and if it develops further to the south in the caribbean and goes over the yucatan. That would also cause it to go more to the west. Towards mexico and southern texas as well now the reason why this storm is moving in the direction.

It is because we have the weakening of the two ridges across the united states. We have a ridge over the western united states and a ridge over the eastern united states and in between theres, a developing trough coming down out of canada, thats weakening the ridge over the central us allowing for this storm to just move north between the two ridges And, depending on the strength of the storm, could be anywhere as far west as mexico and a straw, and if a really strong storm could be as far east as louisiana, mississippi and alabama. So by day 5 on monday august 30th, we see on the european model. Almost making landfall with central louisiana and the gfs still a little bit further south, with landfall coming on tuesday morning and on the gfs. We also see back in the southern caribbean, another developing storm system just to the north of panama and colombia. So here we can see what wind impacts we will have from this storm as it moves through the caribbean and uh into the gulf of mexico. European model on the left is suggesting that well have wind speeds and tropical storm force of around uh 38 miles an hour. The gfs on the right is same well, have a little bit stronger of a tropical storm with winds of 47 miles per hour now uh in five days from now as its approaching louisiana on both these models, the european has seen a 78 mile per hour cap.

One hurricane gfs has seen 106 mile per hour cat 2 hurricane, but because we have such warm waters just to the south off the coast of louisiana, the gfs is indicating it could tap into that potential and strengthened into a cat 3 major hurricane just before landfall Uh, unfortunately, in practically the same areas that were affected last year by laura delta and zeta, so im sorry louisiana. But if this does hold true, please start preparing now thats, all i can say anywhere along the gulf coast should be preparing but louisiana. If this storm is strong, its going to start going more towards your direction because it can fight against that high pressure system better than a weaker storm and in terms of rainfall potential over the next five days before making landfall somewhere on the gulf coast, we could See in those red shades anywhere between two to four inches in the darker browns, four to eight inches and the light browns eight to ten inches rain for anywhere across jamaica, the cayman islands, yucatan peninsula and the western end of cuba now quickly. Here is the satellite image for invest 97 still disorganized, as its elongated trough axis, as well its projected to stay out to sea, but could become a hurricane, especially based on the european model heres the latest satellite image of 98 l and its expected to also curve Back out the sea and go around our bermuda azores high and it could say, become a weak to a moderate tropical storm if it develops so here it is on today, august 25th, by the time we get to two days from now, we see a developing uh Tropical depression or storm with 98 l with another wave coming off the coast of africa and then, by the time we get to day five, the european model is suggesting a hurricane or a strong tropical storm for 97 l, a weak tropical storm or depression.

In 98. L and another tropical wave coming off the coast of africa, so we could see these start churning out as we go towards the end of august and early september. Thank you for watching this video. If you liked it, please hit the like button and leave a comment. Please share this video with your family and friends on social media and, if youre new and, like detailed weather breakdowns hit the subscribe button and notification bell to get all of my upcoming videos.

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