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Video were going to discuss tropical storm ida and if it will become a major hurricane before making landfall somewhere along the louisiana coast. If you like, detailed weather breakdowns hit, the subscribe button and notification bell to get all of my upcoming videos, so were looking at the latest satellite image of the atlantic basin and on the left of your screen. That is tropical storm nora in the eastern pacific. To the right of there, that is our newly formed tropical storm ida to the top right. We see, invest 97l to the below that we have 98 l, and then we have a wave coming off the coast of africa. Now, over the next two days, uh invest. 97 l has a 50 chance of developing and 98 l a 60 chance of developing 97 l over the next five days has 70 chance as well as 98. L has a 70 chance as well heres a close up view of 97l trying to get better organized to developing a low pressure center near the surface, but most of its thunderstorm convection still to the right center of its developing circulation. Now this doesnt pose much of a threat to land, except for maybe some squally weather around the azore islands, as it continues its northeast track out to sea. Now, if it does develop, it could uh only get into a baby, a tropical storm territory and depending on, if it or 98 forms first. The next name would be julian, followed by kate heres.
The latest satellite image of 98 l, better organized than uh 97 l and thats why it has a greater chance over the next two days of developing. But it too looks like its going to go back out to c as its going to recurve to the north, and it too has a potential becoming a tropical storm, maybe even as it continues north in the uh atlantic could go as strong as a cat. One. Now the biggest threat were gon na have is from our newest tropical storm that just formed within the next uh half hour, or so we have tropical storm ida and it just formed because i dont have any new, updated graphs to show you im still working on Td 9 graphs, as i was making this video um, but right now, im making this at 5 32 p.m. At 520, the national hurricane center just upgraded td, 9 2. A tropical storm item with winds of 40 miles per hour, moving northwest at 14 miles per hour and its forecasted to go over the cayman islands and the western half of cuba, and by tomorrow, before making landfall over cuba, could potentially be a hurricane already ill. Show. You that, on the models here, heres the lead of spaghetti track guidance models, but now that we do have a developing low pressure center near the top of that uh trough axis that we saw yesterday uh. We have a better gauge of where this storm storms gon na go and unfortunately i know everyones gon na hate this, but louisiana youre in the target zone.
Again, i know today is the anniversary of hurricane laura, making landfall with louisiana, and then you also had delta and zeta and all the other storms that came through last year and you still havent recovered from that. So all i can say is: please get yourself prepared now, because this one with the track its gon na take could go strong category three or higher. Now the model intensity guidance is saying a category three, but i see this potentially going higher and ill show you why so heres the slight cyclonic vorticity uh on our gfs model, the black hexagon is ida. Blue hexagon in the pacific is nora, pink hexagons, 98 l, red hexagon is 97 l right now its in very warm waters in the western caribbean just to the southwest of jamaica and well be moving over the cayman islands sometime tonight into tomorrow morning, and then its Going to go northwest over cuba and into the gulf of mexico, but not just anywhere in the gulf of mexico, its going to go over the loop current and the loop current is an area in the gulf of mexico, thats associated with the gulf stream. Where we have warm waters coming out of the caribbean moves north into the gulf of mexico and then loops back around the florida straits up into the gulf stream along the east coast of the united states and where i highlighted that black hexagon is where that loop. Current circulates and creates a very warm pocket of ocean sea surface temperatures in the middle of the gulf of mexico.
Back when i was in college in 2005, i studied hurricane katrina and it went over this same loop, current and exploded into that category 5 storm before it downgraded to a cat 3 before making landfall just the east of louise of new orleans. So this potentially could be taking a very similar track over the same current. Its gon na have very favorable wind shear environment in the gulf of mexico, and that will allow this storm to rapidly intensify when in the gulf of mexico now were gon na. We see some dry air that its dealing with right now on the left side of the storm because of the upper level trough, but thats gon na be dissipating over the next day or so and as we move forward to saturday august 28th. This is when ida will be in the gulf of mexico and well start moving over that loop current and if we look at the upper levels of the atmosphere at that point, we see that well have very good outflow coming out of this storm and it will Have a possibly a 982 millibar low pressure center at this moment and because of this outflow, its gon na have very little wind, shear, very warm sea, surface temperatures and this thing could explode theyre in the gulf of mexico, just like katrina did back in 2005., so Heres the moisture its going to be uh therell still be some dry air in the western part of the gulf because of the outflow coming from nora in the pacific.
But it doesnt look like its going to be affected too much because now because of the more northeastern area where it developed its taken that more eastern cone from yesterdays forecast, unfortunately towards louisiana. So because its further to the east wont be as affected by nora. As previous forecast and by the time we get to sunday afternoon, probably around three four five oclock in the afternoon on sunday well have the landfall somewhere on the louisiana coast. This model is staying right near new orleans, unfortunately, and then our we also see uh, invest 97l in red, going out to sea and 98 l, potentially as a tropical storm or depression at this point as well, and then that will continue by day five on tuesday, The 31st continuing back out to sea, but you see that ida is still just to the north of mississippi at this point so its once, it makes landfall its going to slow down and that could be causing a lot of rainfall problems as this storm comes on. Shore and if we take this out a week, even as it is still trying to move up the the interior of the appalachian mountains, we see back again in the caribbean, a potential another tropical storm moving through the cayman islands and likely moving up into the gulf Mexico for the beginning of september, so the earliest times we could see tropical storm force winds uh for the uh cayman islands would be tonight around 2 a.
m, for cuba around 4 8 a.m and then, as we get to this weekend, saturday, 8 pm louisiana could start Feeling some tropical storm force winds, so here we see the wind speeds on the gfs model. This is tomorrow morning on friday august 27th and we see as its moving uh past the cayman islands. The gfs is estimating wind speeds of 62.6 miles per hour, so that means, as its moving towards cuba, could be strengthening towards a cat one hurricane. Now, when we get to saturday august 28th, this is where it could start to explode and rapidly intensify. We already the gfs is indicating wind speeds of 80 miles per hour, and this is just before it hits that loop current and then, by the time we get to sunday morning, three days out from now, it is estimating wind speeds of almost 120 miles per hour, Which would make it a cat 3, but this, i think, is underestimating. It could go cat 4, maybe even cat 5, before making landfall, as we have also very, very, very warm temperatures right off the coast of louisiana la basically bath water, its temperatures that are approaching 90 degrees off the coast of louisiana and with the slow movement of The storm louisiana is in that purple shading, where we could see 10 to 14 inches of rain from this storm over the next five days, as it makes landfall and even more beyond that, because this is only going out five days, heres.
The key messages. For now tropical storm ida, as i said before, this is still work. I was working on this video when it got upgraded, so i only have the graphics for td9 at the moment, but you get the gist. Take a pause to take a chance to read this english on the left. Spanish on the right, so take a chance to prepare. Now this could be a devastating storm for louisiana, mississippi alabama as youre going to be on the right half side of the storm. With a storm surge, get a curl up similar to what katrina possibly did. All i can say is prepare now and get ready for this potential monster storm. Thank you for watching this video. If you liked it, please hit the like button and leave a comment. Please share this video with your family and friends on social media and, if youre new and like detailed weather breakdowns hit the subscribe button and notification bell to get all my upcoming videos.
