In fact, these five stocks are the vast majority of my total portfolio, so this is clearly my personal opinion, but at the end of the day, it is just that i have my own ways of managing my portfolio. My own risk appetite my own goals, my own objectives, my own time frames. The likelihood is that all of these will be different for you, so please make sure that you make your own investment decisions that are based on your own circumstances and your own valuations im. Just sharing mine here so lets dive into these five stocks for each one. I will tell you the stock and why im invested in a little bit of background as to why i am particularly excited to buy it and share some of my personal projections and evaluations for each of these companies. I am not gon na go into the full details here. The video is just gon na go on for too long. If i do, i have specific videos on some of the individual stocks where i go and do that and i will be making more of those videos in the future as well. I know that a lot of people will strongly disagree with my views. I am not here to be some kind of missionary converting people to some new religion. I am just sharing my opinion. I think that these are the five most interesting tech stocks out there for me, which is why they are in my portfolio.
So, first up im going to start with the most obvious company, and that is tesla tesla is the largest holding in my portfolio and at the moment tesla takes up a disproportionately high chunk of the total, because the price dropped recently sending prices down to 540. Earlier. This year and the share price continues to be incredibly undervalued. In my opinion, tesla is a company that many people love to hate and that goes beyond twitter. There is an overwhelming bias against the company from the media who seem to report on every single tesla vehicle fire or accident, ignoring the much higher relative incident of accidents and cars, with tanks full of highly explosive petrol going on fire. And it goes even all the way up to the government who dont invite the company that dominates the ev market to a white house event all about evs and the regulators keep seemingly opening meritless investigations every single week. So there is this bizarre negative obsession with tesla and there is a huge amount of hate for elo musk himself. That seems to stem from some kind of weird combination of jealousy and self loathing, and the good news is that this seems to have suppressed the share price quite significantly. I know that these very people will say that tesla stock is grossly overvalued by a factor of 10 or something to that effect. But i have a pretty detailed bottom up valuation model that uses some somewhat conservative assumptions that has a target price of three thousand dollars on the tesla stock, which is an over 300 upside on what the current share price is.
The company has single handedly dragged the world into an ev conversation that we simply did not have 10 years ago. They are now starting to drag us towards sustainable scaling of energy storage and full self driving both things that will fundamentally change our lives for the better. Over time and the company is years ahead of any competitor at the moment in terms of development and scale, i do not need tesla to earn 100 of any of those markets. This is an argument that i just dont really understand my forecasts that i think are incredibly good in terms of the potential upside give tesla. Only low single digit market shares in the card and energy sectors in 10 years time, and even that projection still shows a huge upside. It is incredibly rare to see such a huge upside on a company that is already large and is a top 10 company. In the s p, 500, so thats, why my hand was somewhat forced and i own uh, probably a bit too much tesla stock. Next up on my list is a company called fiverr? If youre not familiar with it, they have a website where people and companies can hire freelancers for all kinds of different tasks and jobs. I actually made a video recently about fiverr, where i said that their stock might be the best investing opportunity in 2021, and that was because the share price tanked after they announced their quarterly results a few weeks ago at the beginning of august and that dropped the Outlook on profitability over the rest of this year, but i actually think that is incredibly short sighted.
Unfortunately, it seems that most analysts dont read beyond the headline figures. I read the results and the numbers in there, in my opinion, were ridiculously good. Whatever your personal experience or opinion of fiverr is the numbers just dont lie. This is a unique example of a company that is at the start of a non linear growth, trajectory which will look insane in a few years time, but the p, l and balance sheet are not showing those numbers. Yet so investors set five of stock largely to ignore. The good news is that this growth that i referenced, that i am anticipating, is not based on some kind of hopium or a prayer. Fiver shares data that they use and that that data shows that this growth is already on the way you just cant, see it yet, and this one chart in the quality reports sums it up best. It shows that the quarterly revenue per cohort of customers versus the market cost of acquiring those customers is pretty crazy. It shows how much money those customers are earning compared to how much it costs to get those customers in the first place, and you can see that the return per cohort eventually becomes several orders higher than that cost of acquisition. In fact, the multiplier is actually growing. You can see that the speed at which it is increasing is going higher and even the older cohorts are actually beginning to accelerate, which is pretty crazy in this type of business.
Based on the numbers that are being shared here, i would fully expect a lifetime target of a multiple of something like 8 to 10 on the currently booked cohorts, and here is the bit that this graph does not show, which is really important. The total amount spent per quarter on marketing by fiverr has been increasing too. So, while all of these old cohorts are earning revenue, you dont see it becoming profit, because all of that revenue taken as marketing spend to acquire the next lot of quarterly cohorts. This year, fiverr has been spending 40 million dollars per quarter on marketing. So far in 2020, during the same period, they were spending about half that about 20 million dollars per quarter in 2019 it was 15 million dollars and just 12.7 million dollars in 2018.. So this is a chart of their marketing spend over the last few years, and if you remember the chart that i showed you earlier with those green circles, each dollar spent on marketing makes itself back in the first quarter and then, after that, that dollar should go And make about seven to nine dollars of pure profit in future years after that first quarter. So the combination of these two charts is literally showing you that the outlook for the company is insane fiverrs. Market cap at the moment is 6.5 billion dollars and they are booking about 1.4 billion dollars in future revenue per year. At the moment, revenue that has an 83 gross margin as of the last quarter, so the company is technically losing money.
If you look at the p l, but in reality they are running at a valuation, multiple of just 3.6 on the future flow of the profit that the current cohorts should generate after subtracting operating costs, that arent marketing or r d. And that is bonkers. And i have a target price of 550 at the moment on fiverr stock, which may go up as more data is released in future quarterly updates. I actually bought a large amount of fiber shares after their price dropped to under 170 recently, and it has now become a much bigger part of my portfolio as a result. The next tech stock that i think has a very big potential, is palantir. Palente is a new kind of data analytics company. A lot of people dont really understand what they do. They simply help businesses bring together different data sources that they already have and use from different places and different types of systems to make better business decisions. They make analysis and the use of that data. Very easy. Palantir provides gui interfaces and the implementation is fast. It can take only a few days for companies to get set up with their systems. Their business has been booming with the us government departments and sectors like air travel, but recently theyve been expanding further out as well. A lot of people dont like the fact that shares are being diluted by parents here, because the management was incentivized with share options in the past.
I personally think that those views are misguided, because those incentives have led to the creation of a somewhat insane business model. Palantir is a little bit similar to fiverr in that the company looks bad on paper. When you look at the p l numbers right now, without bothering to dig into the numbers a little bit deeper, you see the same. Technical losses are being published, but revenue is growing at a ridiculous rate, and the best thing is that that rate of growth is seemingly accelerating gross margins are very, very high and heres the best bit. They are growing their future business today and you can see the rate at which that growth is happening. Q2 revenue for palantir was 376 million dollars, but they booked 925 million dollars in future business during the same quarter, thats 146, more than the business that they invoiced for during the quarter. Their total deal value is currently at 3.4 billion dollars. That is the amount of money they have existing contracts, for that will be paid over the next few years and thats for a company that only made one billion in total in revenue last year, and that outstanding deal value is growing fast. It grew by 600 million dollars in just three months. The best bits here are the things that those numbers dont show, and that is that the total outstanding deal value that has an average contract less than 3.9 years. The number that wasnt printed, but they mentioned on the investor, call that number does not include renewals and imagine that youre, a large company or a government department that has installed this software youve, moved all your data sources into it.
Everyone is using it. The software is lightyears currently ahead of any alternative, and all your staff are now trained on it and use it daily. How likely are you to switch away from it? How likely are you to stop that service when the contract ends rather than renew it? I think many analysts underestimate that stickiness factor valencia share price at the moment is about 25 and i have a target price of 81 at the moment, which again has a ridiculously high upside, and that is why i am invested next up on. My list is amd. Now amd doesnt have as big of an upside as some of these other companies on my list i only have a target share price of 186 dollars at the moment, while the current share price is about 110 thats, just 68 or 69 in terms of upside. Now. The word just does sound somewhat funny in this context, because it is still a very high number, but i also think that amds undervaluation probably has a shorter timeline for correcting, and i expect a lot of the growth to be coming over the next 24 months. So there is a higher likelihood here that the returns for amd will come sooner than potentially with some of my other investments amd is a computer chip company and theyve been making some incredible moves under lisa sue? Who is the current ceo? Their hardware is beginning to completely dominate the consumer and enterprise segments and the growth in smart devices, including things like cars as well as cloud computing, is putting amd in a seriously good position for the near future.
I forecasted a lot of growth in the enterprise segment. Some time ago, and that has actually begun coming through over the last two quarters, i think there is some way to go yet and while some analysts are wary, im expecting the sky high demand for high performing computer chips to sustain for the next 24 months. At least this is this chip shortage that were talking about, i think thats going to continue, because there is so much demand and that is outstripping the ability of companies to provide the supply. I recently raised my target price in amd and i actually think that well have to see how the next few quarters go. There is every chance that i will have to continue increasing it further as more data emerges. The next stock on my list is lucid motors, and this one might be the most interesting in some ways. It is far more speculative than the others. It has much higher risk, including the risk of the stock going to zero of total failure, and lucid also has the longest expected time horizon out of my stocks. Im expecting results to convert into share price movements to take years. I actually dont usually invest in companies that are this early on in their journey, but too many parts of the qualitative analysis here stack up in a really big way that the downsides from them being this early are somewhat outweighed. In my opinion, there is a very serious factory that is already set up in arizona that has the capacity for scaling a lot over the coming years, running multiple production lines, outputting 300 000 cars per year or more.
There is a very strong balance sheet. That is underpinned by huge institutional investment, which gives them a very long runway highly unusual for this kind of business. There is some real innovative technology. Lucid theyve been supplying the battery packs exclusively for the formula e racing series for years now, so they know what theyre talking about in that space and they have industry leading electric motor design, and that again, is pretty incredible. They have the experience 2, starting with peter rollinson, the ceo, who was the guy in charge of creating them and developing the model, s for tesla way back when the share price has been yo, yoing up and down over the last few months, which is exactly what I expected to happen. I actually think ill continue doing it for probably the next nine to 12 months, at least going up and down for whatever random reasons, because market the share price is currently at about a twenty dollar price, which i actually think is really good. For me, a fair value in that share price at the moment would probably be more around the 40 to 45 territory, but as the company develops and production actually starts, i think that target price could increase several times over. The path forward is incredibly bumpy. There is a lot of risks, but if a bull case scenario plays out here, this could be a multi bagger that could go up by a factor of 10 or 20 over the next decade and there arent that many companies that offer this kind of theoretical potential.
Even if everything goes their way, even if all the ducks are aligned, in any case, i hope you found this video useful. If you did id really appreciate smashing the like button for youtube algorithm.