Still a hurricane weve got invest 91l, slightly, better odds that that develops before it moves onshore in florida later today, and we have a new tropical wave that just emerged off the african coast that has low chances at developing. We are two days out from the peak of the atlantic hurricane season activity, usually peaks around september 10th, see that big uptick in activity, both in hurricanes and tropical storms and things do stay quite active through the rest of september, even through the first half of october. Before a big drop in activity towards november and the end of the season coming, our way november 30th are out in the atlantic basin right now. Of course, weve got larry no longer a major hurricane after spending over four days as a major hurricane theres, our brand new tropical wave way out in the atlantic zero percent chance of developing in the short term, around 20 percent, as we get out through five days And invest 91l. Since we last spoke yesterday, this chances have gone way up 60 within the next two days and 60 within the next five. If it doesnt develop before it moves onshore today, theres another chance as it moves off the coast of the southeast united states. Later on this week into the weekend, heres a look on satellite imagery were looking at infrared now. This will kind of give us a depiction of where the strongest convection is and the brighter colors of the blacks and the whites here, showing up here, just south of panama city, a flareup of convection, giving us an indication here that this is starting to get its Act together on this imagery, you can sense a broad circulation overall, but when i switch it up to the visible satellite imagery thats a little bit more evident here, you can see that swirl in the clouds and even looking at radar here out of eglin air force Base plenty of tropical downpours just offshore now, but you can really see it when i put it in motion over the last two hours, you can absolutely see that there is a surface low here, surface center of circulation, pivoting and lifting its way off towards the northeast.
However, not quite yet determined by the hurricane center to give it that upgrade either tropical depression or a tropical storm id say the odds are going up that this does get an upgraded depression or storm before it moves over the panhandle of florida later tonight. So that will enable them to put some watches and warnings up along the coastline there now modeling on this weve talked about how the models have struggled, because we dont – or we havent at least, had a center of circulation for the models to say this is where It is this is where its going, so for now its just been guessing, and this is an excellent example of that. You see the starting points. The initialization points on all of the models are all over the place, considering its actually forecast to be right there, where that l is located, models are all over the place here and even well to the north, and then they all are pretty much in agreement. A lot more agreement than they were for the past few days that this does push its way to the east. Northeast move over southern georgia, northern portions of florida and then re emerge back over the open waters of the southeast coast. Where weve got the gulf stream. Where weve got plenty of warm water, so odds are even higher here that if it doesnt develop here, it develops there off the southeast coastline and does get that next name, which would be mindy now.
This is a minimal gray tropical system, okay, its not going to bring widespread damage anything close to what we saw with ida, some gusty winds, maybe some higher surf than usual and even rainfall totals arent. That impressive were talking one two, maybe locally three inches of rainfall. Here, as we go into south georgia and northern portions of florida, and even some of that rain spreading on into the carolinas okay lets jump over to larry now larry has been downgraded. It has weakened slightly down to a category 2 hurricane. So no longer a major hurricane, but its got winds of 110. So the high end of a category two still a very large system and on radar or on satellite imagery. I should say early on here: you saw the eye and that is kind of fizzling as it pushes on off towards the north. We had talked yesterday one of the reasons why it could be the weakening is because of its overall slow movement and upwelling of the ocean waters. So eventually it was mixing up cooler waters and depleted the warm fuel ocean waters that it was using still a pretty large system. A little bit smaller than yesterday has contracted a little bit down around 800 miles in diameter. Yesterday we were pushing towards 1 000.. Now the wind field, as we gain latitude to spread out and its continuing to do so. Tropical storm force winds now extending out 180 miles from the center weve got hurricane force winds of at least 74 now out 60 miles from the center in this area.
In red, in between the oranges, winds of about 58 or so, and that extends out about 100 miles from the center consistent with the storm track here, moving to the east missing bermuda, keeping the heaviest winds away from the island nation. Still tropical storm warnings you can see in the orange shading for the area there as it lifts north by friday morning. It is still a category 2 hurricane with winds of 100 miles per hour, but getting even farther out in time. That does look to impact new finland and eventually even towards iceland, by next week, so yeah its moving very far north and should keep some of its structure. Of course, the winds and rain will be with it too, as it moves well to the north. Now weve been talking about larry for quite some time, and you may be asking yourself, you know how long has it been out there? I feel, like weve, been talking about this forever. Well, first advisory came out when it became a tropical depression. Tropical depression number 12., and that was nine days ago, so weve been talking about larry for nine days now when compared to all the other storms so far this season, it is not the longest, but it likely will because itll surpass fred, which was around for 11 Days, the last advisory was issued 11 days after it began with fred, i think, were gon na at least add another two days to larrys life span and then, probably even more than that.
Now that also gets you thinking. Well, how long has the longest storm been around first heres a plot, though of larrys lifespan. It was named tropical depression 12 on the 31st of august, and then here we are on the 8th of september category 2 storm to the south southeast of bermuda, yeah. Okay, so now let me get back to that. Whats, the longest storm thats been around the longest lived storm. Well. This is very interesting, john hurricane john back in 1994. Now not only was this storm around for 31 days an entire month, but it moved over such a large area, 7 100 miles that it moved over. The international date line in the pacific became a typhoon, then passed back over it and was renamed a hurricane before it petered on out in the northern portions of the pacific. Isnt that really interesting, 7 100 miles it traveled from off the coast of mexico, moved south of hawaii crossed the date line and then back typhoon and a hurricane john in 1994, a nice little trivia tidbit there. If you ever need to use it all right, waves out there from larry are going to be pretty formidable along the eastern seaboard. Well get wave heights 10 12 feet thats, going to cause some coastal erosion. So, despite it not actually impacting this the coast itself, the residual impacts, the waves emanating from the center of larry pushing towards the coastline. There now winds, as i mentioned, going to be sparing bermuda.
This is the probability of at least 75 mile an hour winds. Hurricane force winds, look to miss it. Of course, tropical storm force winds likely still going to make it there, but i want to draw your attention on whats going on in the north because, as this builds north hurricane force winds through new finland and then eventually even farther north from there. So this will likely keep its structure. The water temperatures are cooler, certainly this far north but theyre, not exceptionally cooler and they are warmer than average. So, even though its not going to hit bermuda its still going to hit some land masses with larry as it builds northwards over the coming days, all right, thats, the latest on larry 91l and that other tropical wave, if anything, does change or if invest 91l does Get that upgrade to a depression or tropical storm mindy david paul will be up later tonight with that latest update for you.