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? Well, the atlantic still dominated by larry, but 91l, is an outside chance of development 30 chance in the next five days. Its meanders north in the gulf of mexico could develop in the warm waters of the gulf stream thats a bit too far out to tell at this stage, beyond the five day period, the eastern pacific. We have invest 90e, which is now an 80 chance for the next two days and a 90 chance in the next five days. Models have been supporting another little area of interest in the open eastern pacific and also in the western pacific. We have two: tropical storms comes on and 19 w 19 w likely to pick up the name of shanthu fairly soon, but conson threatening the philippines. Now with the typhoon landfill. Its currently got winds of 60 knots and just offshore from sama 19w expected to rapidly intensify and could attain category 3 status as it approaches. Taiwan. North indian ocean is all quiet as youd expect this time of the year. So so far, the strongest storms have not changed skills sergey, taking the cake with a massive 190 miles an hour. The next name in the atlantic will be mindy in the eastern pacific. It will be. Olaf in the central pacific were waiting on honey for the western pacific thu likely to come in the next few hours, and then the north indian ocean is waiting on gula, apparently active larry. The category 3 110 knot storm and conson 60 knots now thats a big change from yesterday.
We also have 19 w 96e and 91l as other little spots around the world. Unnamed spots is a look at tropical storm consonant on the ir satellite imagery bubbling away. Some fairly good convection, it seems to have a decent inflow. Ban, might be deteriorating its structure a little bit as it moves over legaspi sort of area through sama um, probably not at 16 hops right now, um. There are ground observations away from the center of the storm that are supporting around 60 knots in the center, so a little bit of interesting stuff, theyre, not exactly sure what the intensity is, because it is quite small and to be fair, a big surprise. Heres. A look at major hurricane larry, certainly um, looking the part of the category three but might be undergoing another eyewall replacement cycle thats. What recon is saying and they are in the storm right now – um still a very powerful storm lets jump into some basin analysis. Right now and see what is coming in the next few weeks. This is a good old look at what is hurricane larry right now it is a very large storm to say the least. The eye is still remaining quite warm around that 13 15 degrees celsius mark. In fact might be warmer in the southern spots if the uh weather picker was to pick it but still yeah, quite a decent eye that we have in the center of the storm up towards 16 degrees celsius.
Actually, but you can see, it definitely has that concentric eye wool right now and the southern eye wall is what is going to be taken over. It looks like it is, going through an eye wall replacement cycle and should just totally dissipate this inner eye wall. So i imagine that storms not going to be looking this decent for long, the um, the visible satellite imagery, however saying that storm is looking quite decent. I think it just looks a lot better on the visible satellite imagery uh, but its probably about to undergo another. Overall replacement cycle – and you can see already the big eye wall through here, starting to fill around the storm – it still is mostly annular theres only outflow around the storm, but you can see just how massive the storm it is. It is huge system. This is um. It is dominating the main development region right now. It is one of the largest storms that you will see in this part of the world, especially around this time of the year. Um lets take a look at what uh larrys expected to do. It is going to be moving up towards bermuda and weakening significantly now its only got a hurricane strength system, just offshore from bermuda um, but also a big change, and this is probably why the national hurricane center has not issued tropical storm watches its. That storm should remain um offshore for others. This storm should remain offshore from bermuda uh.
Well, its tropical storm force, winfield should um for that matter, and rainfall as well likely not gon na, be any threat to the uh to bermuda at all. In the next three days, bermuda is really only expecting around 10 mil from the storm, and most of that should fall around today or tomorrow. As the storm starts to approach, but um, it is still a significant threat. The wave certainly is still a very large threat to bermuda, but it doesnt look like were looking out for tropical storm or hurricane force winds at this time, which is a lot of good news for bermuda, still um massive waves in the center. I cannot overstate how serious this threat would be with sort of 15 feet. Waves coming ashore now were going to take a look around the other part of the atlantic. Right now turn on the wind accumulation or gust swathe, as it is sometimes called. You can see that the eastern pacific should be churning out some storms fairly soon, but this is what 91l is expected to do, and i think this is more sort of towards the three or five day period. Here you can see it there, um, the defined center sort of defined center of low might be slightly elongated or slightly open, but it might become a brief system in this sort of area here in the southern reaches of the gulf stream. I would not be discounting that theory. The gfs hasnt been supporting it um.
So i would not be surprised if that didnt pan out, but the gfs does have kind of a defined low pressure center through here. I believe that there is easterlies and wesleys yes, so that would be probably looking at how tight that would be. That might be classed as a tropical depression um, but there is model support thats. Essentially, what there is there is more support for this sort of system occurring its just not overly likely at this stage um. Basically, oh because of the conditions and 91l has really not been tipped by the models to become anything. However, the gfs, i believe, has been showing something quite significant in the gulf of mexico, or it has been in some run. Sometimes it was up towards category 3 status, but now looks like its a tropical storm in the gulf of mexico. Ill go and take a little closer look at that um, decent, probably decent in the bay of compassion that would deliver some fairly significant conditions, um youd think and probably peaking at around 50 knots there. But the gfs has been showing stuff gone for houston, with winds of around um 80 knots, maybe even more as well, and for one run it had a 950 millibar storm uh crashing into crashing into texas. That wouldnt have been a good scenario at all. Thankfully, it seems to have backed down on that forecast, but you can see the eastern pacific is expecting to be quite active over the next um at least week or so with two storms, not uh too frequent to have two storms at once in september, but does Happen you can see up here.
This is what 96e is expected to become a just a brief tropical storm id guess. Um probably be around the 50 knot threshold at the most um, however, then, towards the end of the run, were also looking out for another significant storm through here. Moving south of manzanilla and lazzo lazaro cardinals that might become a hurricane strength system. It looks very small and quite tight, pretty much exactly where nora tracked actually and making landfall through here on the sort of more uh western coast of mexico, around amazon uh there so 45 knots 50 knots still could be quite a powerful storm, but thankfully that isnt Hurricane strength at all, but um, more news. The western pacific is expecting to fire fairly soon, with some very significant typhoon activity expected. You can see komson moving through samara and then into luzon there, and that could become a very significant typhoon as well up towards the uh sort of uh. At least typhoon status you seem to live, has been going as high as category two. Some other models, including the hbf, going as high as category three um and well be making that typhoon landfall on uh vietnam, if i turned on the wind accumulation, it looks like wind gusts will be peaking around that uh 70 knot mark. So maybe just a brief typhoon, but through here just south of luzon, we might be seeing wind gusts up towards the 90 knot threshold, so thats quite significant.
Indeed, this is uh. This is quite a large storm threat actually, and it was the way it formed. I dont think ive ever seen something like that um, not in the at least the two years that ive been tracking it just sort of 24 hours ago. This thing, wasnt, even really tagged by the jwc and now weve got a 60 knot. Storm moving through uh caglione sort of area, and you can see right now – wind observations there, theyre fairly low, but um. The storm has a very tight sort of center. Doesnt seem like its showing up on radar at all, which is uh curious, but we had wind observations just outside of the center of around 45, not gusting 60 knots. So it was a moderately powerful storm for a period now lets go and take a look at this other storm up here now. This will likely get the name of shan thoughts very likely to be named very soon. In fact, i think its definitely a tropical storm right now. The jwc, the jma, has been quite slow on the storms this season, but you can see here a very tight storm that looks like a pinhole line. Also a very nice symmetrical storm as well. Category 2 status and then uh goes through the um. I think thats, the philippine sea islands around um, uh betanus, i think thats what theyre called as a category three strength storm and then makes landfall on vietnam, not vietnam.
On taiwan, as a category 4 strength system, you could see the category 4 uh winds through here – uh very powerful, indeed 116 knots, so that would be a very strong storm. Indeed, i believe wind gusts in the region could be up towards that 140 knot threshold. So youll be looking out for a very significant storm, indeed, possibly a super typhoon from this one. So i would not be surprised if we get a powerful typhoon that would um yeah. That just comes absolutely no surprise to me, but again, nothing coming after these systems, which is curious, considering we are in the middle of september and we should be seeing storms starting to pop off every pretty much every other week, um in that part of the world. In the western pacific uh, it looks like just take a look around. The tropics now looks like thats. A hurricane is still a thing from the ecmwf thats thats interesting, to say the least. I didnt think that would be kept um for more than what it has been uh and its certainly been a very long time that the hurricane has been kept um very interesting. Indeed. I think the ecmwf might be having a bit of a hard time on there. Just to wrap it up were going to take a look at what is now 19w or will be shampoo in the next sort of few hours or so youd think this is expected to become a 105 dot storm by the jwc and honestly.
It would not surprise me if it did become a 105 knot storm the models. The gfs was really supporting sort of sub 930s, but it hasnt its really backed off on that um prediction recently. Um to me, the conditions that its going to be traveling through are near perfect and now the start that he just had is a lot better than what the models were expecting. I believe wind shear, for when the end up for the storms passage here. The philippine sea is just absolutely so favorable for the storm. I mean theres theres, no wind shear in the sight of this storm. In fact, it might be located over uh, oh an upper level low, so that would be quite favorable indeed for this storm um yeah. This storm is going to have an absolute birthday party if you do live in the potatoes islands, northern luzon, taiwan or the southern ryukyu islands. You really need to watch this storm closely, because this could be a very significant threat. Indeed, anyways thats, the lotus that i have on the tropics. If you did enjoy the video you can share support if you like, if you want to see more content like this, please do consider subscribing thats all from me and ill catch.
