Well, here we are with another active day in the tropics. Of course, it is to be expected now that it is september, and we have three systems active larry, which remains the category three in the atlantic, as well as cons on a 19w in the western pacific, both posing major threats to land in the coming days. Switching it over to the atlantic its day, 99 of atlanta hurricane season, larry remaining a strong category, three as verified by recon and invest 91l, which still has a 20 chance development in the northeastern gulf. Slash the western atlantic as it either hits florida and continues to hit uh parallel. The carolinas, of course, its day 115 of eastern pacific hurricane season 96e looks likely to form and become the next storm of the pacific basin. And, of course, we also have the area of interest west southwest of 96e, with only a ten percent chance of formation in the western pacific. We have consonant 19w. 19W is probably going to be getting a name relatively soon, kobe, just an hour after this actually does get released so well see if it does get that one. Of course, khan sun is currently impacting the philippines right now could be affecting the hainan peninsula. Afterwards in the northern ocean were looking at nothing going on here and nothing expected the next five days there have been some slight rumbles, but that is to be expected well be seeing some activity return here in about a month, looking it over into the atlantic.
You can see larry quite clearly, theres become an annual hurricane and of course it is looking to be going under another eyewall replacement cycle already relatively large high around 70 miles in diameter. So definitely a very large storm that were dealing with could be affecting newfoundland in five days in the eastern pacific were looking at nothing much besides, of course, 1960. That is the only discernible system that you can really see here. That is likely going to become a relatively short lived tropical system, as it continues to move towards the west away from mexico in the western pacific. You can see kansan there impacting portions of the philippines uh and then, of course, you can also see 19w, which is likely going to become the season. Third major typhoon if current forecast hold. So that is definitely going to be something that were going to be watching. As we head into the next few days, code orange for these two systems here well likely be going live on these two systems in the morning tomorrow in the north indian ocean, you can quite clearly see that there is still monsoonal activity going on here, especially in The bay of bengal and the arabian sea not much going on period all quiet there so expect this pattern to continue for a few more weeks, but yeah going into constant again. That is expected to weaken as it heads to the philippines and a little bit the south, china sea.
But it is expected to become a category 1 typhoon as it approaches the height of peninsula and as well as 19w, expected to become a category 3 and potentially make landfall at that intensity in taiwan. So definitely some big threats that were looking at here in the eastern pacific sea surface temperatures remain around 28 to 29 degrees celsius for a good chunk of the basin. Although they are starting to see some more areas that are down to 27 there, the gulf of mexico has somewhat recovered from the impacts of grace and ida and what they had on the waters there, but other than that temperatures remain relatively warm across the entire atlantic Region there 28 to 29 across the entire caribbean and, of course, as you head into the northwestern gulf of mexico, those temperatures increase to over 30 to 32 degrees celsius in the north. Indian ocean were still seeing some of those 30 degrees. Isotherms expand across the portions of northern bay bengal. Those temperatures of course drop off quickly as you head into the arabian sea and in the western pacific. The 30 degree isotherms continue across the philippine sea and the south china sea. So some really good temperatures that were seeing get tapped into for the western pacific and its going to be providing a good environment for these storms as long as shear doesnt. Take hold well, of course, have more in depth updates on these two systems, as we head into the next 24 hours.
Here is the sea surface temperature anomaly, so you can see that the atlantic is still looking relatively above average. Although you can kind of see some cooling where larrys been tracking over so were starting to see, some of that upwelling take shape there, the western pacific remaining above average in terms of temperatures and then, of course, the pacific, not looking too hot in terms of those On this day, in 1991, we had two category fours active hurricane claudette, which was the strongest system of the 1991s inactive season there and typhoon ivy, which was peaking on this day, as well as a category 4.. There was also tropical depression, seven, which would become a tropical storm by the name of danny. So, of course, weve been having quite a few list. One seasons but weve also been honoring, the anniversary so thats. Why youve been seeing a little bit more of the uh list, one familiarity uh lately, so with that said, you can find more of our cycling history products on the twitter there. Well, with that, the next name of the atlantic remains mendy, followed by nicholas in the eastern pacific, were looking at for olaf and pamela and in the central pacific. While olaf may think that its beautiful its really not because were still waiting for honey for the over 690th time in the western pacific were looking out for chant, two followed by diane moo were likely going to be getting chant to within the next hour or two.
Maybe a little bit longer, depending on what happens with the names and, of course, north indian ocean were looking out for gulab and shaheen. Here in the australian region were looking out for patty and ruby in the southwestern indian ocean were looking out for anna and batseri and in the south, pacific were looking for.