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Aurora, Solar flare, Sun Big Bright Regions Beckon Amid a Big Aurora Show | Solar Storm Forecast 11.22.2021

Those stories and more in the news this week, this space weather forecast, is sponsored in part by millersville university. Come get certified in broadcast space weather visit, millersville.edu swen space weather this week calms down just a little bit, but its not completely quiet. We do have some fast solar, wind from irregularly shaped coronal hole. As we take a look at our earth facing disc. You can see that coronal hole in the south over the past couple days. The first part of it has rotated into the earths strike zone and its been sending us some fast, solar wind, which has brought some aurora to high latitudes, but not really down to mid latitudes. It has bumped us up to active conditions a little bit here and there, but then then things kind of calm down, and yet we have a second part of this coronal hole. Thats now rotating in through the earth strike zone and once again the solar wind speed has jumped up a bit likely. This time, though, the aurora is definitely going to stay at high latitudes, so aurora photographers at mid latitudes, are going to have to sit this one out most likely. Meanwhile, we also have regions 28, 96 and 97. They are kind of quietly traversing the earth facing disk. When they are boosting that solar flux up into the high 70s thats, not as high as wed like so amateur radio operators and emergency responders, youre sitting with marginal radio, propagation and thats going to be like that for the next few days.

But we do have some good news on the suns, far side that ill talk about in a minute. Meanwhile, the rest of the disc has got a few filaments here and there, but theres not a lot thats erupting so we dont have any earth directed solar storms and it looks like things are going to stay quiet for the next few days. Switching to your m flare threat meter. As you can see, the x ray flux is pretty low as a matter of fact, its sitting well below the sea floor right now, and that means by proxy. The solar flux also continues to be low, were sitting in the high 70s right now, which means marginal radio propagation on earths dayside. In fact, as starting around the 17th, we kind of went into a low and thats been continuing for the last few days and we havent even been popping any flares of note thats, because region, 28, 96 and 97 are pretty quiet, theyre, just kind of puttering across The disk right now, but we are beginning to climb out of that lull in the next day or two were going to be back up into the low 80s and it possibly could climb further in that simply because weve got some new regions that are going to Be rotating into earth view over the next couple days, so amateur radio operators and emergency responders just hang in there, because that solar flux will return switching to our solar storm conditions.

I dont know about you, but im still reeling from that g3 level. Solar storm. We had back on the 4th as a matter of fact, we actually hit g3 levels three separate times and were storming for almost an entire day, and that was long enough to bring aurora deep into mid latitudes and give us some of the most gorgeous displays of Aurora, including rainbow aurora and ill, highlight some of those photos in a little bit, but after that we actually took a little time for earth to stop ringing like a bell. So we stayed at active conditions, kind of on and off until about the seventh, when things went back to unsettled to quiet conditions, and we stayed like that until about the 15th, when we bumped back up into active conditions – and this was due to that first pocket Of fast solar wind that weve been experiencing over the past couple days, and you notice things then kind of quieted back down a little bit. But now were beginning to ramp back up because now were getting that second pocket of fast solar, wind, and that should last for a few days before things quiet back down, it should bring aurora, maybe to high latitudes. I dont think its going to make it to mid latitudes, just doesnt look like its going to be strong enough, so were just going to have to wait until we see you know another g3 to get some of those gorgeous shows again and during that gorgeous g3.

A level solar storm that we had back on the fourth there were so many gorgeous or war photo photo opportunities all around the world. It seemed and man is our community grown. There have been so many photos that were submitted, i cant even get through them all and i think its just fantastic that there are so many more photographers out there looking up at the skies during these storms and getting people to understand space weather. So, thank you very much, and this was a perfect opportunity because, as you can see from space it looked like the aurora was almost a river in the sky. It was just so stunning. So let me highlight just a few of these photos. This week, ill highlight some next week and possibly the week after that, if we continue to have quiet, uh, storming and no storm periods for the next few weeks or so so let me show you some gorgeous pictures. First, at high latitudes uh, we had gorgeous shots in norway, and this was before the storm actually got really underway and the aurora actually went so far south. They couldnt see it in high latitudes anymore, and it moved down to scotland, and it was seen in denmark and down into the netherlands and, as we begin to move over the atlantic, it was seen in iceland in many places in iceland and as we move across To the western hemisphere, this is when the storm really began to kick in and it was seen all over canada.

We have ontario and shots from quebec and it was seen in manitoba and in saskatchewan as well as alberta, and if you can see all the pulsating notice that that all looks very similar. This is because people were inside the auroral oval. The oval had actually enveloped them and we actually even went down into the united states. It was seen in maine and we had it both in north and south dakota, some of the similar pulsating aurora, that we saw up in canada and it was seen in vermont, and it was also seen as we move further south. It was seen in nebraska and it was seen in colorado, and then we had aurora in wisconsin we had a war in nevada and in utah we also had it in oregon. People were seeing it from plains. We had it also in washington state and it even dipped as far south as joshua tree, which is a little bit further south in los angeles, where i am believe it or not, and then, of course, in the south, we actually had aurora australis make it as Far north as auckland new zealand and it was seen in tasmania and it even made it to victoria australia. So what else does our sun have in store for us this week? Well, this is stereo a its our partially far sided monitor. You can see heres earth heres, the sun and heres stereo a staring at the sun just a little bit from the side, and when we take a look at stereos view, you can see theres not a lot going on on the disc.

But there are these dark. Like squiggle worm looking features, these are those filaments. We were talking about and theyre not really eruptive. They look pretty stable for the most part, but if they do launch, they could be a solar storm, so were definitely keeping our eyes on them. Meanwhile, we also have region 2897 kind of in the center disc. That region is showing a little bit of eruptions, but not too much really, and then we have a small coronal hole in the south that could bring us some more aurora at high latitudes. Probably in about 10 to 14 days well give or take, and then the real story, though, is the story on the east limb. Do you guys see all those bright regions, especially the one in the north, that bright region? If you look at it closely as it continues to emerge, not only is it massive, it looks like its actually firing off small eruptions here and there that is old flair, player 2891, and so it may yet be a player still so were waiting anxiously for that Region to rotate in further into stereos view, because, with its going to boost that solar flux, it also may bring m flare risk back to us again and possibly more solar storm chances. So hold your breath guys because things could get exciting here in the next week. Switching to our moon, we are now coming out of a full moon on our way to a third quarter and by the 26.

The moon will still be about 60 percent illuminated so night sky watchers. If you want to catch those dim objects in the sky, youre going to have this bright companion to deal with so youre going to need to check your local rise and set times switching to your solar storm conditions and aurora possibilities over the coming week. We are getting that fast, solar, wind, hitting earth right now from the second part of that coronal hole. Thats rotating in through the earth strike zone and at high latitudes noahs expecting active conditions with up to about a 50 chance of a major storm, now likely thats a little bit overblown. I dont think its going to be quite that strong, but we could nevertheless see some aurora easily in through the early part of next week at high latitudes, before things begin to die back down. Just because this coronal hole is actually so kind of widespread. Now mid latitudes were only expecting unsettled to maybe active conditions. We do have about a 15 percent chance of a minor storm, but likely again. I think this is a little bit overblown it just doesnt. Look like the conditions are going to be quite right to bring aurora down into mid latitudes. So your photographers down here youre, going to have to kind of go back and just take a look at those g3 level. Storm pictures and and just feel nostalgic until we get another big one, because this one definitely isnt going to be it.

Meanwhile, things will then settle down as we get to the latter part of next week. So uh you know, relax, enjoy and well have to wait for the next storm, switching to your solar flare and particle radiation storm outlook over the coming week. Everything is in the green when it comes to big solar flares. The only regions we have on the earth facing disk right now are regions 2896 and 97 and theyre reasonably quiet. So we have no risk for radio blackouts right now and that should make gps users on earths dayside very happy. However, they are boosting the solar flux into the high 70s and low 80s and thats giving us well. You know marginal radio propagation on earths, dayside and those levels of solar flux will continue to climb over the course of this week, as we start getting the influence of those other regions that are rotating into stereos view right now, they hopefully will be boosting that solar Flux back up into the maybe mid to high 80s within about a week, or so so amateur radio operators and emergency responders. Just hang in there solar flux will boost. We might even get up into the 90s wouldnt that be nice, so just hold on one more week before things will give you a little bit of a respite now, meanwhile, because we are still climbing out of solar minimum. The cosmic ray flux is still a bit more intense than wed like it to be so you frequent flyers – and this does include air crew, who fly over 800 hours annually and fly at high, latitudes and high altitudes.

You are in the moderate range. This is the d2 minor range for radiation dose, and this does include prenatal passengers. So please take this into consideration in your flight plans, so the space weather this week isnt all that exciting, but we do have a little bit of activity going on were being hit right now by a second pocket of fast solar wind from a corona hole. Thats rotated into the earths strike zone, as a matter of fact, were going to be hit by this fast solar wind easily over the next couple days, and it could bring aurora down to high latitudes, most likely mid latitude. Aurora photographers, though, youre likely going to have to sit this one out, because i just dont think its going to give us enough to bring aurora down to mid latitudes for this trip. So you know just enjoy the the beautiful pictures that weve had from that g3. Solar storm because we might get some uh activity, maybe next week well see now amateur radio operators and emergency responders. You two are kind of a little bit in a lull because the solar flux is down into the high 70s right. Now we are dealing with uh marginal radio propagation on earths dayside, but youve got some luck in store because we do have those new bright regions that are rotating into stereos view and will rotate into earth view here, probably over the next four days or so. Maybe a little bit longer and we may be back to having m flare players, we shall see so, who knows, maybe that solar flux will boost up into the 90s, possibly even triple digits and now gps users? Well, you know what the solar flux is down and we dont have any big solar storms headed toward earth, so gps reception, pretty much all around the globe, should look pretty good im tama the scove, the space weather woman.

What do you think?

Written by freotech

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